US & World News

Japanese stocks ended up Thursday, the figures for economic growth in January-March quarter have offset the worries about Greece and its banks.

The Nikkei gained 0.9% or 75.42 points to 8876.59 points, while the Topix broader took 1.12% or 8.28 points to 747.16 points.

Japanese gross domestic product increased by 1% from January to March compared with the previous quarter, helped by a rebound increase in consumption. In this context, investors have taken advantage of the recent decline of 12% of the Nikkei to do some shopping on the cheap.

Values, Credit Saison ended with a gain of 3.88% to 1,658 yen. Society of consumer credit has posted an annual net profit above market expectations.

America Movil, the phone giant owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, said Thursday it will buy the California-Simple Mobile to expand its market presence ; American.

This is the second external expansion of the group within days.

Simple Mobile is a mobile virtual network operator, with more than one million subscribers. In March, the number of subscribers of Tracfone, the U.S. subsidiary of America Movil, reached just over 20 million.

America Movil, the leading provider of mobile services in Latin America, announced Tuesday its intention to increase its stake in Dutch KPN to 28%, thus taking hold in Europe as part of a transaction of more than 2.5 billion euros.

Bertelsmann announced Wednesday for the first quarter of 2012 up 13% of operating profit and 5% of its turnover, confirming its annual target of moderate growth CA

The first media group in Europe – which has among others the broadcasting group RTL and publisher Random House – said that its operating profit (EBIT) reached 280 million euros against 248 million a year ago.

"For the full year, we are confident to achieve our goal of moderate growth in sales, EBIT stable at a high , and an increase in profit after minority interests, "said Thomas Rabe said in a statement, chief executive of Bertelsmann. 

RTL Group also announced Wednesday an increase in sales during the first quarter. Growth on French and German advertising markets offset a continued decline in Southern Europe and East.

Bertelsmann, which focuses on digital and abroad to spur growth, announced in late March a change in legal structure, which might suggest that the group is more strongly opposed to an introduction scholarship.

Small and medium businesses, entrepreneurs and self-family businesses, which account for most of the economic fabric of the country, paying a heavy price for the Greek crisis. The European Commission is trying to address the funding problems they suffer. In Greece, six out of ten SMEs have seen their incomes decline in 2011.

Up to a thousand individual companies will put the key under the door every week in Greece in the first half of 2012 due to the serious crisis that is sinking the country, said Friday the European Commission, which seeks to root the problem.  

"Greece is facing an economic crisis and social crisis which is reflected in the situation of small and medium enterprises: six out of ten companies have seen their incomes decline in 2011 and 150,000 jobs were lost," said the Commission in a press on the sidelines of the visit to Athens Friday the European Commissioner for Industry, Antonio Tajani. "It is estimated that during the first half of 2012, up to 1,000 small businesses have closed every week," said the statement, which does not provide estimates on the number of companies created in parallel.

The Commission therefore calls for increased aid to these companies, self-entrepreneurs and family businesses, which form the bulk of the Greek economic fabric. Since last September, the European Union through its Task Force for Greece including trying to find ways to overcome the credit crunch affecting SMEs, banks, deficit, cut off from markets and dependent on the ECB, having suspended loans. In March, a special guarantee fund, with 500 million euros, was created by the EU to promote through the European Investment Bank lending to SMEs up to a billion euros.

According to the Commission, in 2010, Greece had 742,600 very small businesses, employing a total of 2.512 million employees, over 85% of total employment in the country, a record level in the EU. These structures produce 35.3% of the value added of the country against 21.8% on average in the EU. With 14% of employees on average in Greece, against 33% in the rest of the EU, large companies they create 28% of the value added, highlighting the low productivity of small businesses in Greece, the Commission added.

China Petrochemical (Sinopec) is in talks with the Spanish oil group Repsol to buy its Argentine subsidiary YPF, so that its potential nationalization, reported Tuesday a Chinese site for financial information.

According Caixin.com, citing a source close to Sinopec, the Asian oil company has found a non-binding agreement to take control of YPF for more than 15 billion dollars (11.4 billion euros).

A Sinopec spokesman declined to comment on "market rumors".

For its part, the president of Repsol Antonio Brufau said at a press conference that the tanker had received many expressions of interest from international groups to take a stake in YPF but did not comment on the information on Sinopec. 

Also according to the site Caixin.com, Sinopec estimated oil reserves of YPF in Argentina have a potential for development. The group ensures to meet the requirements of the Argentine government to accelerate the development and production.

The Argentine President Cristina Fernandez announced Monday it would ask Congress for the expropriation of 51% of YPF's energy group, immediately attracting the warnings of important trading partners and in particular a strong reaction from Spain.

Of the 35 billion budgeted in 2010, 25 billion has been spent on 880 projects ranging from education to digital through aviation. It is too early to measure the impact of these investments on the economy. President of the Republic, Nicolas Sarkozy, has held 27 June 2011 at the Elysee a press conference on the big loan.

In March 2010, financial storm, the government launched the national loan to support the economy: the key to an envelope of 35 billion euros to finance research and innovation. Two years later, the device has already helped to select and provide funding to 880 projects on 3,000 proposals received.  

"Today it is 25 billion spent, but in a few days, there will be 27 billion," says Alain Juppe, who was with Michel Rocard, co-chairman of the Supervisory Commission and Great Loan Rene Ricol, Commissioner General investment, a press conference-record March 20.

€ 6 billion for education

Among the 880 projects already selected, higher education is carving the lion's share. 8 and excellence initiatives, designed to bring out the poles leading academics, have been funded for more than 6 billion euros. In addition, eight technology research institutes combining private and public research have received a total of 2 billion.  

In industry, it is aviation, and in this case EADS, with its two subsidiaries Airbus and Eurocopter, which has hit the jackpot: € 1.4 billion for two demonstrators, one of composite airplane, another helicopter of the future. The banking industry, announced in February by Nicolas Sarkozy, should also benefit from a contribution of one billion euros through the big loan.

In sustainable development and the digital economy, the budget allocated to the various projects are less important. They concern, for the first, low-carbon or renewable energies, for the second, the digitization of content, cloud computing, e-health or e-education.

No doubt, the teams have carbureted big loan. They still have two new programs announced yesterday university hospital oncology in Ile de France and Toulouse. But it is still early to assess the impact of these investments for the future of the economy and the role of France in international competition.

Over the past three months, the U.S. stock market has regained its levels of late 2007. And in Europe, France has rebounded even stronger. The improvement could well last until May. But then train for the return of volatility. Explanations. The stock market rally seen through the evolution of the Dow Jones: an increase of nearly 18% in almost four months.

Equity markets have recovered tone. Wall Street has lost ground with the financial crisis, is now finding its levels in late 2007 after a 11% jump in three months. For the first time in its history, its flagship index, the Dow and the Nasdaq, dominated by technology, rose this week above the psychological threshold of 13,000 points and 3,000 points, during the same session. European stock markets are pronounced the same trend, the Cac 40 in Paris even showing since mid-February a gain of 21% which allowed him to retake the course of 3600 points.

The rally in shares is not new. It has already lasted three months and we owe largely to central banks, said Benjamin Melman, Director absolute performance at Edmond de Rothschild IM. The rebound in stock prices coincided with the opening last December, to tap liquidity from the ECB or the provision of banks over 1000 billion euros of resources at low cost. This proactive reassured investors who constantly claim that the central bank acts as a lender of last resort to stem the contagion of debt. But his determined action has contributed to lower interest rates in the bond market and away along the spectrum of the credit crisis that threatened the European economy. The Fed has also facilitated the rise of the stock market by deciding to extend until 2014 its ultra accommodative monetary policy. Of course, the rescue of Greece has also helped to ease investors. Although all issues are not resolved, a page of the European crisis has turned, says Francois Chevallier, strategist at Bank economist and Leonardo.

And the good news for investors is that the rally is not over yet. Price increases in January and in February was made with very little volume, Melman says Benjamin. Many investors have been waiting patiently for several issues are resolved. They return on the market today. We assist in some way, a second wave of purchases, which explains the recent acceleration in price rises.

How long can it last? Difficult to say. Looking at the ratios of current profits, we say that most of the journey was made, says François Chevallier. However, the stock market has another engine, that of profit expectations. But they will remain well oriented in the short term due to the favorable business surveys. The ZEW index in Germany and that of the Philadelphia Fed – two leading indicators of the industry – improved further in March, says the expert. This means that the plateau expected in the industry has not yet occurred. The next ISM index, which takes the pulse of American industry, may still show an increase in early April, at the same time giving a new impetus to the market.

As of May, however, the stock market could consolidate, ie enter a phase of slower growth. Indeed, the production rates in the industry expected to slow. Moreover, the return of valuations at pre-crisis level will lead to profit taking, says Francois Chevalllier. Tensions on the bond markets – the U.S. 10-year rates rose in a few weeks from 1.8% to 2.3% – would create air holes on the stock market, adds Benjamin Melman. Volatility will brief comeback. The opportunity for investors to remember an old adage stock: sell in may and go away.

According to the Chinese premier, the yuan has appreciated 30% since 2005. It is now close to its equilibrium value. Beijing could stabilize once more its currency to the chagrin of Western countries. A 100-yuan face a $ 100 bill.

The military budget and export quotas of rare earths are not the only subjects of friction between China and Western countries. There's one in particular which is recurrent and that may well not be resolved anytime soon: the yuan. And despite official statements sometimes included ambiguous way too optimistic by some Western obervateurs.

Early on the course of the Chinese currency, deemed too low, the subject of criticism. In the U.S., the yuan is accused of trade deficit and destroy jobs. Following the Forum summit of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), last February, U.S. President Barack Obama, once again called for an appreciation of Chinese currency. His hopes are to go up in smoke.

According to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking at its annual press conference, the last of its mandate, the yuan is now approaching an equilibrium value. It is indeed appreciated 30% since 2005 and has changed little since the beginning of the year. In other words, you must not rely on an appreciation of Chinese currency in the coming months. "We will accelerate reform of the exchange rate", has certainly also said Wen. But it was soon clear "by giving more scope to fluctuations in both directions." In other words, the yuan revaluation claimed to body and cries by the major developed countries, is absolutely not announced.

The braking worrying the Chinese economy is no stranger to these statements. The Chinese export growth has moderated from 21% in the third quarter to 14% in the fourth quarter. In February, China has even recorded a record trade deficit.

China undergoes economic cooling in other countries, experts note of BNP Paribas. The decline in exports is explained clearly by the decline in sales to European countries (22% of total exports in 2011) and to a lesser extent, the United States. Another measure of trade intensity, the current account surplus of China has reached 2.8% of GDP in 2011. "It is below the international norm of 3% of GDP", says Chinese Premier.

Under these conditions Beijing, which needs growth to ensure social peace, has every interest in stabilizing its currency. This lever has been used during the crisis: the 2008-2010 period, Beijing was chosen to secure the dollar before losing a little ground in 2011. In fact, since mid-2008, the yuan has only appreciated that about 5% against the greenback, causing the exasperation of the United States.

In 2012, BNP Paribas' experts provide at best a 3% appreciation of the Chinese currency. But its "internationalization," however, is expected to continue at a rapid pace. Eventually, indeed, China dreams of being less dependent or concurrent, of the dollar. Since 2008, it is redoubling its efforts to force the yuan internationally. Since 2009, Chinese companies can charge in yuan business transactions with foreign countries. Since 2010, foreign companies can borrow yuan, via Hong Kong on an offshore market. Air Liquide has issued bonds last September in yuan to 185 million euros. For two or three years, the yuan also sees its role reinforced by the swap agreements (that is to say, temporary exchanges of cash) made between the central bank of China and its neighboring countries (Korea, Malaysia, Singapore).

Recently, the Austrian Central Bank has signed an agreement with the Chinese central bank, becoming the first Asian central bank not be able to make investments in yuan! Finally, China allowed Japan to buy the first time in its history of Chinese government bonds. The Middle Kingdom does not stop there. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, requires the input of the yuan in the composition of the SDR, the IMF's currency. But it will be hard to convince world leaders, as are many disputes between China and the West.

European shares ended sharply up Thursday, supported by jobless claims near their lowest in four years in the U.S. and the new massive injection of liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday.

The CAC 40 index closed up 1.37% to 3499.73 points, new peak of year, having stumbled in the afternoon against the bar psychological 3,500 points. London took 1.02%, Frankfurt and Milan 1.25% 2.93%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index has been 1.45%.

The increase was particularly driven by the banking sector, which jumped 1.85% after the sharp decline in borrowing costs of Spain and Italy on the market ; s bond.

Other U.S. indicators have yet been considered disappointing, including the ISM manufacturing index, which signals an unexpected slowdown in growth in industry in February, and spending construction, which fell against all odds in January for the first time in six months.

European shares reinforce their gains late Wednesday morning after the injection of almost 530 billion euros of liquidity into the European banking system as part of the second ; me refinancing long-term European Central Bank.

Traders polled by Reuters had expected that banks in the euro zone borrow some 500 billion euros, after borrowing 489 billion during the first operation to three years and at reduced rates which took place in late December.

Equity markets have increased their earnings briefly a few minutes after the announcement of the ECB before returning to previous levels. The euro also briefly mounted against the dollar before erasing its gains.

"The relaxation of collateral has worked well. We see that the central bank achieved its goal. This shows that the central bank is proactive and follows closely the situation of banks' refinancing , "said Raymond Renaud, president of Eleanor Capital.

"This is a very positive message about the state of mind in which the central bank. We see that the behavior of the central bank is increasingly close to that of the Fed."

"The market implications are positive. There are two issues of concern to markets: growth and financial stress. The subject of financial stress is very well addressed with the Greek record in the process of being resolved and the refinancing of banks, "he says

.. A ……. 11:45, the CAC 40 index advanced 0.3% after rising briefly to almost 1% and then he earned more than 0.5% shortly before the announcement of the ECB

. Other major European markets, London was almost unchanged, Frankfurt Milan took 0.5% and 0.8%

. From the European indices, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.5 also Eurofirst 300% and 0.4%

. Bank stocks, which anticipated the operation from the opening, are the first measure ; res to enjoy. Farm Credit clinching nearly 4% and 1.7% Societe Generale.

The performance of the German government bond (Bund) at 10 years was 1.827%, 1.825% cons shortly before the announcement.

The euro was trading around 1.3440 dollar, while it was around 1.3465 before the announcement.