US & World News

Japanese stocks ended up Thursday, the figures for economic growth in January-March quarter have offset the worries about Greece and its banks.

The Nikkei gained 0.9% or 75.42 points to 8876.59 points, while the Topix broader took 1.12% or 8.28 points to 747.16 points.

Japanese gross domestic product increased by 1% from January to March compared with the previous quarter, helped by a rebound increase in consumption. In this context, investors have taken advantage of the recent decline of 12% of the Nikkei to do some shopping on the cheap.

Values, Credit Saison ended with a gain of 3.88% to 1,658 yen. Society of consumer credit has posted an annual net profit above market expectations.

Banks in the world are preparing in peace to work with a new Greek currency.

Some financial institutions have never cleared the drachma of their computer systems after the adoption of the euro by Greece in 2001. They would be ready in a flash if the problem of debt forced the country to return to the good old banknotes and coins denominated in drachmas.

In any case, banks are accustomed to change: they have managed the transition of financial markets to the euro in 1999 and the emergence of currency as the Estonian kroon (up ; its replacement by the euro in 2011) and the Kazakh tenge with the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Moreover, it stirs behind the scenes since 2009, when the onset of the debt crisis in Greece, says Hartmut Grossman, American society ICS Risk Advisors works with banks Wall Street.

"Many companies, particularly in Europe and also here, studying it for a long time," said Hartmut Grossman. "All financial institutions are prepared for this eventuality. The departure of Greece in the euro area is not a new idea."

The European Union says it wants to keep the euro in Greece. Polls show that the Greeks want to keep the single currency. But they also voted last Sunday for parties opposed to the bailout of the EU and the International Monetary Fund, which has again raised doubts about the maintenance of the country within the Ten- Sept.

EXCHANGE CONTROL

If Greece leaving the euro, it certainly would impose exchange controls, say bankers, which would not prevent dealings in the new currency.

"The rooms specializing in foreign exchange markets can be ready fast enough. It depends on exactly how to pass out of the euro area, "said Lewis O'Donald, chief risk officer of London-based investment bank Nomura Japan

.. The currency ……. not freely tradable, as the Chinese yuan, followed in markets other than through the use of derivatives such as contracts term for example

. If Greece chooses a fixed exchange rate, everything will depend on the exchange ratio used. If the government chooses a euro for a new drachma, such parity would not be sustainable for very long and would involve major losses for banks Banks

. é ; tudié opportunities to protect themselves but few have taken concrete steps

. "Banks are very, trè s reluctant to start shouting fire. They know what's going on (would) and what would a panic, "said a London lawyer to advise financial institutions

. Most people just check the law applicable to their contracts, are covered against defects and examine all the legal problems that an outflow of Greece to the euro could raise … Simulations

…… have been made. But we do not really know how to operate an output

…. ….. "For transactions denominated in euro, what will their status in case of change in the nature of this currency?" asks Miles Kennedy, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers

.

Small and medium businesses, entrepreneurs and self-family businesses, which account for most of the economic fabric of the country, paying a heavy price for the Greek crisis. The European Commission is trying to address the funding problems they suffer. In Greece, six out of ten SMEs have seen their incomes decline in 2011.

Up to a thousand individual companies will put the key under the door every week in Greece in the first half of 2012 due to the serious crisis that is sinking the country, said Friday the European Commission, which seeks to root the problem.  

"Greece is facing an economic crisis and social crisis which is reflected in the situation of small and medium enterprises: six out of ten companies have seen their incomes decline in 2011 and 150,000 jobs were lost," said the Commission in a press on the sidelines of the visit to Athens Friday the European Commissioner for Industry, Antonio Tajani. "It is estimated that during the first half of 2012, up to 1,000 small businesses have closed every week," said the statement, which does not provide estimates on the number of companies created in parallel.

The Commission therefore calls for increased aid to these companies, self-entrepreneurs and family businesses, which form the bulk of the Greek economic fabric. Since last September, the European Union through its Task Force for Greece including trying to find ways to overcome the credit crunch affecting SMEs, banks, deficit, cut off from markets and dependent on the ECB, having suspended loans. In March, a special guarantee fund, with 500 million euros, was created by the EU to promote through the European Investment Bank lending to SMEs up to a billion euros.

According to the Commission, in 2010, Greece had 742,600 very small businesses, employing a total of 2.512 million employees, over 85% of total employment in the country, a record level in the EU. These structures produce 35.3% of the value added of the country against 21.8% on average in the EU. With 14% of employees on average in Greece, against 33% in the rest of the EU, large companies they create 28% of the value added, highlighting the low productivity of small businesses in Greece, the Commission added.

The blacklist of tax havens in 2012 was reduced to a trickle, from 18 to 8 members this year. The government is attacked for its laxity. The headquarters of the Cayman National Bank in George Town. The Cayman Islands belong to the core of tax havens.

The list of states considered by France as uncooperative in terms of transparency and exchange of tax information has been updated for 2012.

Surprised, she has been drastically reduced: exactly eleven states have been removed (Anguilla, Belize, Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Cook Islands, Islands and Caicos Turkey, Liberia, Oman, Panama, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have been removed from this list) for a single added (Bostwana). Among the endless extras, we can see Brunei, Marshall Islands, Montserrat, Nauru, Niue Island, or the Philippines.  

In total, in less then ten states listed on French blacklist of tax havens. The withdrawal was decided, either because these countries have concluded with France a bilateral agreement to exchange any information necessary for the application of their tax law, or in reciprocal because the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information in Tax Matters (OECD) has removed himself from the list.

Sometimes this can lead to some contradictions, as in the case of Costa Rica came out of the French list, even as the World Forum reminded last week that "the law might hinder the effectiveness of exchange of information ".

"A sustained vigilance"

Asked about this issue by Nicole Bricq, general rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the High Assembly, Valérie Pécresse has ensured that the states concerned were subject to sustained vigilance. "The challenge for the coming years was to put the agreements under vigilance" has justified the Minister of Budget. Before insisting: "I think we should be very firm on the implementation of agreements." But Valérie Pécresse admits, some countries with which France has signed agreements are still experiencing "pain points" in the image of Switzerland. Recently a delegation of Bercy was sent to Geneva to say that the implementation of the agreements was not satisfactory.

According to figures released by the Ministry, 77 000 French bank accounts abroad were identified in 2010, three times more than in 2007. Ms. Pécresse also said that tax audits had reported 16 billion euros in 2010, "1 billion more than in 2009," did she congratulated.

An enthusiasm not shared advocates the fight against tax havens. According to the NGO CCFD-Terre Solidaire (Catholic Committee against Hunger and for Development), at least 20 billion euros each year would continue to escape the budget of the French government because of tax evasion. In a report last October, the NGO also points out that according to the Tax Justice Network, it is not 8 but 54 states in the world who cultivate a "high degree of financial opacity", nearly a quarter countries of the planet should be placed on the gray or black list.

Specifically, the inclusion on the blacklist French is not trivial for states. For businesses located there are heavily taxed by France. The rate of withholding tax on passive income (dividends, interest, royalties) are 50% when they are poured into an entity present in the territory uncooperative. In addition, certain provisions of the parent-subsidiary regime are removed as the exemption of 95% of corporation tax on dividends paid by a subsidiary to its parent.

The OECD recommends that developed countries cut their debt to GDP ratio to 50% in the coming decades to cope with possible shocks, in a study published Thursday.

Most of these countries have much higher ratios, significantly aggravated by the recent crisis, the OECD average in excess of 100% and 200% Japan.

For comparison, the French public debt amounted to 1.717 billion euros at end 2011, nearly 86% of GDP.

"Cleaning up public finances to cope with the consequences of the crisis, the underlying weaknesses as well as future pressures on public spending is a major challenge for many countries", e described the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 

"It appears there could be an important and lasting fiscal tightening in almost all countries to reduce debt to prudent levels," she says, adding: "Given the weak economy World, commissioning Å? work of a broad program of fiscal restraint could be particularly costly. "

The decision of E. ON to forego building new nuclear plants in Britain does not mean that the company turns its back on the entire value chain, said Friday the meadow , chairman of the Executive Group utilities.

"This is not a rejection of nuclear energy, just a decision on how we are investing," said Johannes Teyssen in an interview published Friday by the German newspaper Handelsblatt.

RWE and E.ON announced on Thursday to abandon their plan of 18 billion euros to build new nuclear plants in the UK, which could undermine the objective of London for renewal of the reactor pool. 

Both groups have justified this decision by the choice of Germany to break with nuclear energy, high operating costs of their joint venture and the dice Horizon ; lais required by the construction of new nuclear plants.

E.ON also said Thursday it would continue its project to build a nuclear reactor in Finland through the consortium Fennovoima, in which the German group owns 34% through its Finnish subsidiary.

The Indian airline Kingfisher Airlines could be stripped of his license for non compliance with safety standards and financial viability, said Tuesday the Indian Minister of Aviation, Ajit Singh.

The company in financial difficulty, does not meet its turnaround plan, said the minister who was speaking to reporters.

Kingfisher Airlines is now operating more than 18 aircraft, barely more than a quarter of its fleet.

The company, whose debt stands at $ 1.3 billion (995 million), could file for bankruptcy if banks continue to refuse to lend money for its operations rations from day to day. 

A massive decrease in thefts has reduced the turnover of the group and the carrier has almost no money to defray the salaries and meet its tax liabilities and its airport charges.

The chairman of Kingfisher, Vijay Mallya, will meet the civil aviation authorities Tuesday or Wednesday to discuss the Group's recovery, the minister added.

According to data from Airbus, current orders Kingfisher deal 32 single-aisle A320 Family, 20 A330s, five long-haul A350 and five A380 super-jumbo.

Over the past three months, the U.S. stock market has regained its levels of late 2007. And in Europe, France has rebounded even stronger. The improvement could well last until May. But then train for the return of volatility. Explanations. The stock market rally seen through the evolution of the Dow Jones: an increase of nearly 18% in almost four months.

Equity markets have recovered tone. Wall Street has lost ground with the financial crisis, is now finding its levels in late 2007 after a 11% jump in three months. For the first time in its history, its flagship index, the Dow and the Nasdaq, dominated by technology, rose this week above the psychological threshold of 13,000 points and 3,000 points, during the same session. European stock markets are pronounced the same trend, the Cac 40 in Paris even showing since mid-February a gain of 21% which allowed him to retake the course of 3600 points.

The rally in shares is not new. It has already lasted three months and we owe largely to central banks, said Benjamin Melman, Director absolute performance at Edmond de Rothschild IM. The rebound in stock prices coincided with the opening last December, to tap liquidity from the ECB or the provision of banks over 1000 billion euros of resources at low cost. This proactive reassured investors who constantly claim that the central bank acts as a lender of last resort to stem the contagion of debt. But his determined action has contributed to lower interest rates in the bond market and away along the spectrum of the credit crisis that threatened the European economy. The Fed has also facilitated the rise of the stock market by deciding to extend until 2014 its ultra accommodative monetary policy. Of course, the rescue of Greece has also helped to ease investors. Although all issues are not resolved, a page of the European crisis has turned, says Francois Chevallier, strategist at Bank economist and Leonardo.

And the good news for investors is that the rally is not over yet. Price increases in January and in February was made with very little volume, Melman says Benjamin. Many investors have been waiting patiently for several issues are resolved. They return on the market today. We assist in some way, a second wave of purchases, which explains the recent acceleration in price rises.

How long can it last? Difficult to say. Looking at the ratios of current profits, we say that most of the journey was made, says François Chevallier. However, the stock market has another engine, that of profit expectations. But they will remain well oriented in the short term due to the favorable business surveys. The ZEW index in Germany and that of the Philadelphia Fed – two leading indicators of the industry – improved further in March, says the expert. This means that the plateau expected in the industry has not yet occurred. The next ISM index, which takes the pulse of American industry, may still show an increase in early April, at the same time giving a new impetus to the market.

As of May, however, the stock market could consolidate, ie enter a phase of slower growth. Indeed, the production rates in the industry expected to slow. Moreover, the return of valuations at pre-crisis level will lead to profit taking, says Francois Chevalllier. Tensions on the bond markets – the U.S. 10-year rates rose in a few weeks from 1.8% to 2.3% – would create air holes on the stock market, adds Benjamin Melman. Volatility will brief comeback. The opportunity for investors to remember an old adage stock: sell in may and go away.

Finance ministers of the euro area have endorsed Monday night the second aid package to Greece after the success of the restructuring process of the Greek debt, announced the Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker.

He said that the Greek debt level should be reduced to 117% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 through in terms of private sector involvement (PSI ) carried out last week via a bond exchange.

"We discussed the second Greek plan, including of course the issue of the PSI. With the completion of previous steps and the success of the PSI, the new plan is not only Greek in the starting blocks but has been adopted by political Eurogroup this (Monday) evening, "said one who is also Prime Minister of Luxembourg

. The formalization of this agreement in principle should be Wednesday morning, during a technical meeting of the euro area, said Jean-Claude Juncker

. He praised the high turnout private creditors to exchange debt and recalled that the initial objective was to reduce the level of debt at 121.5% of Greek GDP …….

.. "We agreed that this result better than expected should not be spent by the Greek authorities but retained as a safety cushion ;, "he said

.

At the brink, the euro area has again died Tuesday morning at the fire that threatened to bring Greece but the road is still long and bumpy before the country only emerges from two years of an unprecedented crisis.

Under the terms of the agreement reached shortly before 4:00 Tuesday and after thirteen hours of negotiations, the Greek debt will be reduced to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 through a new public loan program of 130 billion euros and a restructuring of debt held by private creditors.

They have finally agreed to a 53.5% discount on their obligations through a share swap that will erase more than 100 billion Greek debt. 

The European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro area also participate in the plan by giving up some profits on Greek bonds they hold.

"We have reached an agreement on a new scale for Greece and a private sector that will lead to a significant reduction of the Greek debt (…) to ensure the future of Greece in the euro area, "said President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, after the meeting.

The euro jumped by about half a cent against the dollar after the announcement of this agreement by Reuters. 

ATHENS UNDER SURVEILLANCE

The restructuring of the Greek debt held by private creditors will commit this week, said Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos.

It is expected to close in early March, when the Greek authorities should also have implemented a list of priority measures in the program if they want to get the first disbursement.

These public funds are needed to Athens could repay 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20.

Troika EU-IMF-ECB, which oversees the implementation of reforms and conducts quarterly reports will be further strengthened and its resources increased. 

Under the second bailout, the European Commission will soon send dozens of permanent inspectors in Athens to ensure the smooth running of the technical program and monitor the implementation .

This presence on Greek soil will be accompanied by the creation of a special account to process a priority debt repayments Greek, whose principle is enshrined in the constitution within two months.

NO MIRACLE CURE

This agreement multistage was made necessary by the state of Greek public finances as they appeared in a confidential report prepared by the EU, the Central Europe ; enemies and the International Monetary Fund and obtained by Reuters. 

The document also shows that in case of slippage in reforms introduced in Athens or in terms of economy, Greece's debt could reach 160% in 2020, about his current level.

The new aid package will not be a miracle cure. The Greek economy shrank by 7% annual rate in the last quarter of 2011, more than expected, and the new austerity measures would further exacerbate the situation.

Diplomats and economists do not expect this new bailout plan that solves all economic problems overnight, Greek and many believe it will take at least ten years or more for fulfill this task.