US & World News

On Friday a new conditional easing of U.S. monetary policy to a deterioration in economic conditions in the U.S., the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, has tried to appease the "hawks" who favor the Fed the fight against inflation, in order to rally them to his latest position.

This attitude may make it possible to Ben Bernanke to have the support of the Fed in cases of substantial worsening of the U.S. economic slowdown.

"The statistics should convince the most timid members (of the monetary policy committee of the Fed)," said Julia Coronado, senior economist at BNP Paribas.

When the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke has compiled a table Friday gloomy economic outlook and reiterated the tools available to the central bank to stimulate the recovery.

The statements of the successor to Alan Greenspan, however, were more nuanced than those of the central bank on Aug. 10 after its last meeting, which had resulted in new measures to support the economy and credit.

The main decision that day, namely the resumption of redemptions of government bonds in the long term (Treasuries) without further inflate the stock of the central bank, has been widely discussed within the institution.

Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered that this decision would give the market the impression that the Fed was closer to a new monetary easing significant than it actually was.

ASSESSING THE RISKS OF A NEW FLEXIBILITY

Leaders of the Federal Reserve also wonder if the recent weakening of the U.S. economy is not just a slump before further acceleration of growth, instead of viewing it as a warning about the ability of growth support job creation.

Purchases of "Treasuries and have sent the wrong signal to the markets, while some criticized the swelling of the institution's balance sheet, increased by more than half since the beginning of the financial crisis in late 2008, to 2,300 billion (1,809 billion euros).

The statements by Ben Bernanke Friday were therefore able to reassure some of the skeptics.

While acknowledging the slowdown in the economy, the Fed chairman said that the conditions for a recovery in growth next year seemed satisfied.

"The president did not prepare the country to a recession" double dip ", stated Dana Saporta, Credit Suisse.

Ben Bernanke also acknowledged that it was difficult to assess the real impact of increased purchases of Treasuries and a lowering of interest rates, already extremely low, which the Fed pays banks for their cash have limited effects.

He also explained that one of the factors on which the Fed will base future decisions would be a further slowdown in inflation, already low, which increases the risks of deflation.

For some economists, the pace of recovery has slowed U.S. and statements from Ben Bernanke augur further action by the Fed in the months ahead.

"The general tone was to 'wait and see', despite showing signs of being not only that economic activity in the United States has returned below its potential growth but also to risk a further slowdown," wrote January Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs in a note.

In outlining the conditions under which the Fed could decide new measures to prevent a relapse into recession, Ben Bernanke has probably facilitated the meeting a consensus around him on the FOMC.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth in 2010, citing the strength of the economies in Asia and rising private demand in the U.S., while warning against the risks inherent in the crisis sovereign debt of the euro area.

The downside risks have increased significantly, mainly because of turmoil in financial markets again since the beginning of the crisis of sovereign debt, but it is unlikely that we are seeing a recession "W", says IMF .

It carries its global growth forecast to 4.6%, while it predicted 4.2% in April, but left unchanged at 4.3% for 2011.

"In our baseline forecast, there is nothing like a recession in 'W'," said Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF during the presentation of the document.

"In this context, the new forecast is based on the implementation of measures to rebuild confidence and stability, particularly in the euro area."

Olivier Blanchard said that the statement of results of resistance testing was a step towards greater transparency while stressing the need for a return of public spending to sustainable levels.

Austerity PESERA IN GREAT BRITAIN

Under one scenario considered by the IMF, based on the assumption that the consequences of the crisis of European sovereign debt as violent as those of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global GDP growth would be reduced 1.5 percentage point in 2011.

The continuing fragility of the U.S. labor markets and housing problems of the euro area and the slowdown in manufacturing activity in Asia have raised many questions among investors who wonder about the possibility of a sudden slowdown in growth for the remainder of the year.

The IMF lowered its growth forecast Thursday for 2011 in Great Britain, Canada, in the euro area, emerging economies and Japan.

According to IMF forecasts, GDP growth in the euro zone will be limited to 1% this year, according to what it expected in April, but it should stand at 1.3% in 2011, 0.2 percentage point less than what was previously announced.

The U.S. economy should she enroll at 3.3% in 2010, against an estimate of 3.1% three months ago, and 2.9% in 2011, against 2.6%.

The most brutal review announced Thursday is to the liabilities of the UK whose new government has begun a course of austerity that may affect growth.

The IMF expects UK growth of 1.2% in 2010, 0.1 percentage point lower than April and 2.1% in 2011, down 0.4 percentage points.

PSA Peugeot Citroen announced a 16.9% jump in sales of vehicles in the first half, including a one-point increase its market share in Europe, which should increase over the year.

The first French car manufacturer and number two in European sales confirmed, however, anticipate a decline of about 9% of European car market, while China is expected to grow at double-digit pace in Latin America with a number.

PSA sales totaled 1.856 million units in the first half, including 1.618 million for assembled vehicles (+16.8%)

In Europe, PSA registrations rose 7.7% to 1.214 million units in the first half, giving a market share of 14.6%, up one point.

The group estimates that the global auto market grew 13% over the period, with leaps of 27% in China and 11% in Latin America contrasts with a fall of 27% in Germany, while France fared with an increase of 6%.

Automakers are preparing an overall drop in sales in the second half, with the gradual disappearance of scrap premiums and caution potential buyers respond to economic uncertainty.

In France, the new car registrations fell in May and June, marking the last stages of the effect of scrappage, reduced on 1 January 1000 to 750 euros and reduced to EUR 500 this month .

PSA, which will publish its interim results on July 28, said in April anticipate a largely positive EBIT in the first six months of the year instead of a simple return to the green before.

The group, whose sales growth has exceeded expectations in the first quarter, however, had warned that the environment might be difficult in Europe in the second half.

Renault will release its own trade performance Thursday.

PSA Action closed up 3.63% to 21.56 euros on Tuesday, giving a market capitalization of 5.05 billion euros. It lost 8.9% since the beginning of the year after surging 95% in 2009.