Banks are preparing for the return of the drachma in Greece

Auto Date Saturday, May 12th, 2012

Banks in the world are preparing in peace to work with a new Greek currency.

Some financial institutions have never cleared the drachma of their computer systems after the adoption of the euro by Greece in 2001. They would be ready in a flash if the problem of debt forced the country to return to the good old banknotes and coins denominated in drachmas.

In any case, banks are accustomed to change: they have managed the transition of financial markets to the euro in 1999 and the emergence of currency as the Estonian kroon (up ; its replacement by the euro in 2011) and the Kazakh tenge with the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Moreover, it stirs behind the scenes since 2009, when the onset of the debt crisis in Greece, says Hartmut Grossman, American society ICS Risk Advisors works with banks Wall Street.

"Many companies, particularly in Europe and also here, studying it for a long time," said Hartmut Grossman. "All financial institutions are prepared for this eventuality. The departure of Greece in the euro area is not a new idea."

The European Union says it wants to keep the euro in Greece. Polls show that the Greeks want to keep the single currency. But they also voted last Sunday for parties opposed to the bailout of the EU and the International Monetary Fund, which has again raised doubts about the maintenance of the country within the Ten- Sept.

EXCHANGE CONTROL

If Greece leaving the euro, it certainly would impose exchange controls, say bankers, which would not prevent dealings in the new currency.

"The rooms specializing in foreign exchange markets can be ready fast enough. It depends on exactly how to pass out of the euro area, "said Lewis O'Donald, chief risk officer of London-based investment bank Nomura Japan

.. The currency ……. not freely tradable, as the Chinese yuan, followed in markets other than through the use of derivatives such as contracts term for example

. If Greece chooses a fixed exchange rate, everything will depend on the exchange ratio used. If the government chooses a euro for a new drachma, such parity would not be sustainable for very long and would involve major losses for banks Banks

. é ; tudié opportunities to protect themselves but few have taken concrete steps

. "Banks are very, trè s reluctant to start shouting fire. They know what's going on (would) and what would a panic, "said a London lawyer to advise financial institutions

. Most people just check the law applicable to their contracts, are covered against defects and examine all the legal problems that an outflow of Greece to the euro could raise … Simulations

…… have been made. But we do not really know how to operate an output

…. ….. "For transactions denominated in euro, what will their status in case of change in the nature of this currency?" asks Miles Kennedy, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers

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Priority to the austerity not affected, said Schäuble

Auto Date Monday, April 30th, 2012

The priority given by the European Union to austerity should not be questioned even if the means of stimulating growth are in the focus of next week, has Monday said the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.

"Fiscal consolidation is not only necessary but is necessary for a specific purpose: to generate sustainable growth, which is the best way to generate employment" , he said during a joint press conference with the Spanish Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos.

"The economic and fiscal consolidation is the first condition. If we now speak of growth, we must not understand this as a change of course. It would be wrong. Priority (for austerity) must remain, "he added, before holding that Spain was on track

… Referring …… French presidential election, he felt that his result would not call into question the European fiscal pact

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The Greek deficit was reduced to 9% of GDP in 2011

Auto Date Monday, April 23rd, 2012

The public deficit of Greece for 2011 amounted to 19.6 billion euros, or 9.1% of GDP. The public debt reached 355.6 billion euros, to 165.3% of GDP. The Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term CC and C short term rating of Greece to SD (Selective Default). (REUTERS / Pascal Rossignol)

The public deficit of Greece for 2011 "is estimated at 9.1% of GDP, to 19.6 billion euros", said Monday the Greek Statistical Authority (Elstat) in a statement. "The Greek government debt for 2011 reached 355.6 billion euros, to 165.3% of GDP", according to this text. These figures are very close to the forecast contained in the budget of the country voted in December, which foresaw a deficit of 9% of GDP, against 10.6% in 2010 and a debt of 161.7% of GDP, against 144, 9% in 2010.  

"Greece has managed to reduce by two years the general government deficit of 6.5 points (…), which we will soon have primary surpluses," said Finance Minister Philippos Sahinidis, quoted in a statement. Mr. Sahinidis predicted in March that the deficit would amount to around 9.2% of GDP. First country affected by the debt crisis, Greece is subject to a strict austerity program to consolidate its public finances. This program, dictated by its creditors EU and IMF, was agreed in exchange for international loans and a debt restructuring that enabled the country in March, erasing about 105 billion euros.

"The need for continued effort to restore fiscal and financial recovery is the goal of next year (…), which will also benefit the Greeks" to justify "their sacrifices," said Mr. Sahinidis. According to budget estimates, the country targets a deficit of 7% in 2012 and a reduction of its debt to 145.5% of GDP after the restructuring. The Minister visited during the weekend in Washington, where he met with the Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, on the sidelines of the meeting of the General Assembly of the organization and a ministers' meeting G20 finance.

"The discussion with Ms. Lagarde was held in a positive atmosphere. We have addressed the issue of recapitalization of banks in Greece after the successful restructuring of debt of the country and the progress made in implementing the sanitation program of the economy, "said Mr. Sahinidis, quoted by the Greek news agency, Ana (semi-official). "Today there is greater optimism about the country's exit from the crisis," added the Minister.

E.ON leaves Britain but not nuclear

Auto Date Friday, March 30th, 2012

The decision of E. ON to forego building new nuclear plants in Britain does not mean that the company turns its back on the entire value chain, said Friday the meadow , chairman of the Executive Group utilities.

"This is not a rejection of nuclear energy, just a decision on how we are investing," said Johannes Teyssen in an interview published Friday by the German newspaper Handelsblatt.

RWE and E.ON announced on Thursday to abandon their plan of 18 billion euros to build new nuclear plants in the UK, which could undermine the objective of London for renewal of the reactor pool. 

Both groups have justified this decision by the choice of Germany to break with nuclear energy, high operating costs of their joint venture and the dice Horizon ; lais required by the construction of new nuclear plants.

E.ON also said Thursday it would continue its project to build a nuclear reactor in Finland through the consortium Fennovoima, in which the German group owns 34% through its Finnish subsidiary.

U.S. banks pass stress test

Auto Date Wednesday, March 14th, 2012

Fifteen of the nineteen major institutions have passed the exam successfully. Good students already announced increases in dividends to pamper their shareholders. Following the results, JPMorgan announced a dividend increase.

The Central Bank of the United States said Tuesday that fifteen of the nineteen banks that it had submitted to the 2012 version of its stress tests were successfully passed this examination.

The coregistered are: Ally, the former GMAC, saved from bankruptcy by the state in 2009 and still belonging to the Treasury, the insurer MetLife, SunTrust, Bank of Atlanta and Citigroup.  

The former world number one, also saved from bankruptcy by the state, failed narrowly on two criteria: its own funds fall below the hard limit (4.9%, against 5% required) and its leverage ("Tier 1 leverage ratio") also (2.9%, against 3% required).

Other banks (American Express, Bank of America, The Bank of New York Mellon, BB & T, Capital One, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions Financial, State Street, Wells Fargo US Bancorpet have passed the exams successfully

. In the wake of the results, several large U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, have announced they will upgrade the remuneration of their shareholders

. At JPMorgan is revalued quarterly dividend by 20% from 25 to 30 cents per share. In addition the bank, the largest in the U.S., has announced a new share repurchase program of up to $ 15 billion, including up to $ 12 billion will be spent this year, the balance in the first quarter in 2013.

"We are pleased to be in a position to increase our dividend and to introduce a new share buyback program," said the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, said in the statement. "We expect to repurchase at least the number of shares we will issue the form of bonuses for employees. Beyond this, we plan to repurchase the securities that when we generate more capital than is required to fund organic growth, and when we think it brings a great value for shareholders, "he added.

At Wells Fargo, the dividend jumped 83% from 12 to 22 cents. The bank said it would buy back more shares than last year, without quantifying its projects.

The Eurogroup endorses the second aid package to Greece, says Juncker

Auto Date Monday, March 12th, 2012

Finance ministers of the euro area have endorsed Monday night the second aid package to Greece after the success of the restructuring process of the Greek debt, announced the Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker.

He said that the Greek debt level should be reduced to 117% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 through in terms of private sector involvement (PSI ) carried out last week via a bond exchange.

"We discussed the second Greek plan, including of course the issue of the PSI. With the completion of previous steps and the success of the PSI, the new plan is not only Greek in the starting blocks but has been adopted by political Eurogroup this (Monday) evening, "said one who is also Prime Minister of Luxembourg

. The formalization of this agreement in principle should be Wednesday morning, during a technical meeting of the euro area, said Jean-Claude Juncker

. He praised the high turnout private creditors to exchange debt and recalled that the initial objective was to reduce the level of debt at 121.5% of Greek GDP …….

.. "We agreed that this result better than expected should not be spent by the Greek authorities but retained as a safety cushion ;, "he said

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Greece avoids default of payment

Auto Date Saturday, March 10th, 2012

Over 80% of private creditors of Athens agreed to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose value has been reduced by 50%. The agreement paves the way for the release of a new loan to avoid bankruptcy the country unchecked. Three of the four ministers of the Greek far-right party Laos opposing the new austerity measures demanded by the creditors of the countries presented their resignations Friday, February 10

Greece has raised nearly 84% acceptance of all its private creditors, including only 85.8% of bondholders under Greek law, in connection with the restructuring of its huge sovereign debt, said Friday the Greek government. If Greece has avoided a default unchecked, this rate is still insufficient compared to the 90% target that was set by the government, explaining that he had to recommend the activation of collective action clauses attached to the bonds to be exchanged.

They are forcing carriers reluctant to accept the terms of trade and should at the final acceptance rate to 95.7%, the statement said the Ministry of Finance. "The holders of approximately 172 billion euros of bonds by Greek law" have accepted the proposal made by the Hellenic Republic on February 24 to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose face value was reduced 50% said the statement.  

"I wish to express my gratitude to all our creditors who supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and shared sacrifices of the people in its historic effort" praised the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement. The exchange of specific securities to be held Monday, March 12 for bonds by Greek law, but an extension until March 23 at 0800 GMT was granted to holders of non-Greek right to present their response to the proposal. This delay does not allow those who have already joined to the bid to reverse their decision.

The partners of Greece indeed want the private sector do its part in the rescue effort of the country, with a contribution sufficient to provide debt reduction to 120.5% of GDP in 2020, a ratio expected to guarantee the country's return to solvency. Successful restructuring opens the door to the contrary release 130 billion of loans provided by the euro area in late October. These two components, debt and bailouts, make up the second bailout of the country developed its international partners, after an initial infusion of 110 billion granted in 2010.

The ECB targets a good report, caution on growth

Auto Date Friday, March 9th, 2012

The European Central Bank has inflected his speech Thursday with a warning of unexpected inflation and a call to governments and banks in the euro area so that they take over in order to consolidate the stabilization of the economy of the block.

She has once again lowered its growth forecast for this year and next year after leaving its key rates unchanged, noting that the prospects for the economies of the area have e ; ty much worse without the massive liquidity injections carried out as part of its refinancing operations with two long-term (LTRO) in December and February.

The ECB began to see signs of stabilization at the beginning of the year, but the expected recovery could take longer than expected. "Available economic indicators confirm signs of stabilization in the euro area, but the economic outlook remains subject to downside risks," said ECB President Mario Draghi, when the press conference that followed the announcement of maintaining the refi rate to 1.0%.

Thus, for 2012, the ECB table does on a GDP growth between -0.5% and 0.3%. For 2013, it anticipates a range between 0% and 2.2%. Three months ago, the central bank of euro countries anticipated a change between -0.4% and 1.0% for 2012 and a range of 0.3% to 2.3% for 2013.

The recent 20% increase in oil prices has, however, prompted the ECB to raise its inflation forecast and anticipate a price increase of between 2.1% and 2.7 % this year, against a range of 1.5% to 2.5% previously. For 2013, the price increase should be between 0.9% and 2.3%, against a previous forecast of 0.8% to 2.2%.

"Because of rising energy prices and indirect taxes, inflation rates are now expected to remain above 2.0% in 2012, the prevailing upside risks", Mario Draghi warned.

The latest Reuters poll conducted among 74 economists, the ECB should keep rates unchanged this year and much of 2013.

Bund futures rose while European equities and the euro have reduced their earnings after the downward revision of growth forecasts of the ECB. 

"From our perspective, the projections (the ECB) are still relatively optimistic, while economic data showed no" stabilization ", especially in the periphery (euro area). The risks are clearly on the downside, "said Annalisa Piazza of Newedge Strategy

. NOT divisive ….. Draghi

… was confident that the operations of long-term refinancing of the ECB which resulted in the injection of more than 1,000 billion in cash in the banking system of the block it averted a crisis far more serious

. Borrowing costs for countries difficulty such as Italy and Spain have fallen sharply and Mario Draghi said that markets, including the interbank market, working again and that investors were income on assets denominated s euro

. "All things considered, we see that great progress has been made", he said. "Simply compare the situation as it was in November and what it is today."

The President of the ECB, however, called on governments and banks to take over to reinforce the recovery of European economies, calling for further progress in fiscal consolidation and further structural reforms.

The euro area economy has stabilized in recent months, partly because of lower rates in November and December the ECB and its massive refinancing operations long-term.

Its room for maneuver to fight against the crisis in the euro area seem small now, partly because of reserves that raises its action, particularly in Germany. 

The Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has sent a letter to Mario Draghi last month to express his concerns and the former head of economic studies of the ECB, and always trè s influence, Juergen Stark ruled Thursday in a German newspaper that the quality of the balance sheet of the ECB was "appalling".

Jürgen Stark had resigned within the ECB last year to protest against decisions which he felt they were not consistent with the mandate of the institution.

"My personal relationship with Jens is excellent … No one is isolated within the Governing Council and the Bundesbank, in particular, is not isolated," said Mario Draghi. "I'm really attached to the culture and tradition of maintaining price stability, the Bundesbank," he said.

In the letter to Mario Draghi and obtained by the German business daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Jens Weidmann was concerned about the imbalances in the interbank clearing system of the euro area TARGET 2 and risk that would result to the Bundesbank, which will be exposed in the unlikely event of a breakup of the euro.

Mario Draghi has sought to minimize these concerns and has declined to comment on the progress of the exchange transaction of Greek debt to be finalized e Thursday at 20:00 GMT at Athens risk of exposing themselves to a default.

Finland's GDP up 1.4% year on year

Auto Date Saturday, March 3rd, 2012

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland increased by 1.4% yoy in the fourth quarter of 2011, after an increase (revised) 3.3% in the third I, Statistics Finland said on Friday (SF).

Over the whole of 2011, GDP in one of four countries in the euro area still have a "AAA" from the three major rating agencies has advanced 2.9%.

Europe consolidates its gains after the intervention of the ECB

Auto Date Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

European shares reinforce their gains late Wednesday morning after the injection of almost 530 billion euros of liquidity into the European banking system as part of the second ; me refinancing long-term European Central Bank.

Traders polled by Reuters had expected that banks in the euro zone borrow some 500 billion euros, after borrowing 489 billion during the first operation to three years and at reduced rates which took place in late December.

Equity markets have increased their earnings briefly a few minutes after the announcement of the ECB before returning to previous levels. The euro also briefly mounted against the dollar before erasing its gains.

"The relaxation of collateral has worked well. We see that the central bank achieved its goal. This shows that the central bank is proactive and follows closely the situation of banks' refinancing , "said Raymond Renaud, president of Eleanor Capital.

"This is a very positive message about the state of mind in which the central bank. We see that the behavior of the central bank is increasingly close to that of the Fed."

"The market implications are positive. There are two issues of concern to markets: growth and financial stress. The subject of financial stress is very well addressed with the Greek record in the process of being resolved and the refinancing of banks, "he says

.. A ……. 11:45, the CAC 40 index advanced 0.3% after rising briefly to almost 1% and then he earned more than 0.5% shortly before the announcement of the ECB

. Other major European markets, London was almost unchanged, Frankfurt Milan took 0.5% and 0.8%

. From the European indices, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.5 also Eurofirst 300% and 0.4%

. Bank stocks, which anticipated the operation from the opening, are the first measure ; res to enjoy. Farm Credit clinching nearly 4% and 1.7% Societe Generale.

The performance of the German government bond (Bund) at 10 years was 1.827%, 1.825% cons shortly before the announcement.

The euro was trading around 1.3440 dollar, while it was around 1.3465 before the announcement.