The Japanese economy contracted less than expected from April to June thanks to the quick restoration of supply chains after the earthquake of March, but the soaring yen and slower global growth darken the hopes of recovery.
Economists expect the third world economy sketch a rebound from July to September, with probably the growth rate the highest in developed countries, as exports and industrial production will return to their levels before the earthquake and tsunami that devastated the north.
According to official figures released Monday, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3% in the second quarter, after 0.9% from January to March.Economists on average had expected a contraction of 0.7%.
On an annualized basis, the economy contracted by 1.3%, while economists expected a decline of 2.6%.
These figures better than expected boosted the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which in turn took the road to recovery from the European and U.S. markets late last week with a gain of 1.37% for the Nikkei.
However, the impact of the debt crisis in the euro zone on global growth might deprive Japan of export opportunities they need to start from the front, while pushing up the yen, safe haven, which will complicate doubling the equation for exporting companies.
"The economy will show a recovery in the shape of 'V' between July and September when supply chains are recovering and will help boost exports," notes Yoshiki Shinkai, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"But the momentum will weaken from October to December with the slowdown in the pace of recovery in external demand, even if (GDP) will not fall back into contraction.In fact, it is even possible that the global economy begins to sputter. "
Restocking AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT
In this context, the Japanese Minister of Economy Kaoru Yosano urged the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to help save the recovery by maintaining its strong liquidity injections and ultra-accommodative policy.
"We will closely monitor the impact that Japan's economy on the rise in the yen and the increasing uncertainty about global growth," he told reporters.
The yen, buoyed by the weak dollar, has appreciated by about 5% in just one month, approaching its historic high of 76.25 yen to the dollar, a level not taken into account by companies Japanese to build their profit forecasts.Around 0930 GMT Monday, the greenback was trading at 76.85 yen.
In the second quarter, the Japanese economy has performed better than expected thanks to the restocking of business and higher public investment, since the first six quarters, as part of the reconstruction effort.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 60% of the economy, fell 0.1% from April to June, down less than expected in favor of special items such as the transition to digital television that fueled TV sales.
But external demand – net exports – have reduced GDP by 0.8 percentage point, the disaster of March 11 that prevented some manufacturers deliver their products outside the archipelago.
And some analysts see the slow growth in business investment spending (+0.2% against 0.5% expected) a sign of their distrust of uncertainties about the economy.