US & World News

Societe Generale has crossed the threshold of 5% stake in Vivendi, becoming with a participation of 7.86% the largest shareholder in the group of media and communications confronted with rumors, dice ; menties, decommissioning.

This rise of the French bank, announced Friday by an opinion of the Financial Markets Authority (AMF), comes as the businessman Vincent Bollore could rise, according a source familiar with the matter, up 5% stake in Vivendi against 1% currently.

According to the AMF, Societe Generale said to have crossed over on April 20 the threshold of 5% of share capital and voting rights of Vivendi and Vivendi hold 98,045,823 or 7.86% of share capital and voting rights. 

This total includes a participation of 5.25% effective in custody and the balance by assimilation.

The bank was not immediately available for comment on whether share purchases had been made for herself or on behalf of a client.

Bollore announced in September 2011 a proposed sale to Vivendi of free TV channels Direct 8 Direct and Star in exchange for remuneration in Vivendi shares up of 22.4 million shares.

The source familiar with the matter, Bolloré could reach 5% stake in Vivendi by the combined effect of the implementation of this agreement and new purchases of securities on the market. 

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Bloomberg news agency reported Wednesday that the conglomerate was considering an overhaul of its structure that could lead to a dismantling of the group, which was denied by Vivendi.

Declining in most European countries, the activity has only slightly slowed in France in the fourth quarter 2011 before stagnating earlier this year, according to INSEE, which had considered the possibility of a recession. Better resistance does not prevent unemployment to continue rising. French executives come to the business district of La Defense

France is going through a little better air hole that affects the entire euro area. After avoiding a decline in activity in the fourth quarter – unlike Germany, it should just happen to stabilize its GDP over the first three months of the year before starting to rebound slowly, according to forecasts revised upwards published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics.  

"For France, we expect a stable activity in the first quarter, zero percent growth, and then a sluggish 0.2% in the second quarter," he told reporters Sandrine Duchene, head of the Department of conditions of INSEE. In December, INSEE had planned a short recession with contraction of economic activity in the last quarter 2011 and first quarter 2012, before there is a growth of 0.2% on October to December last year. "We had a shock on the euro area in the summer of 2011 we are coming out" and "recovery is slow," noted Ms. Duchene presenting the note of economic INSEE March. But gross domestic product (GDP) "regain its pre-crisis level in the forecast horizon," that is to say, late June, said during a press conference an analyst of the INSEE, Dorian Roucher.  

The institute has also revised sharply upwards its forecast of growth acquisition for 2012 that would be achieved by mid-year: 0% predicted in December, it would increase to 0.5%. This represents growth of GDP this year if the last two quarters remained the same as the second quarter. Ms. Duchene explains this revision by the better than expected growth in the last quarter of 2011 and the upward revision of its forecasts for the first half.

Consequently, the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin announced an increase in the government's forecast for growth of the French economy in 2012, now expected at 0.7% against 0.5% previously.

The engines of growth remain low

Optimism, however, must be very measured. The chief economist at INSEE emphasizes that household consumption, the traditional engine of growth in France, "remains low". She would grow by 0.2% in the first quarter before stagnating in the second. And because "a 0.3% decline in purchasing power in the first half."

Several factors contribute to this weakness. Purchasing power would suffer first the relatively high level of inflation (2.2% yoy). In addition, earned income will slow due to the deteriorating labor market. This will not only result in further loss of 49,000 jobs in the first half but it will also affect wage negotiations. Finally, household incomes will be further tapped by taxes, supported by measures enacted in Finance Act which come into force in 2012.

France can not be counted as late last year on exports. Thanks to sales of Airbus, they have indeed been the main driver of growth in the fourth quarter that helped prevent the recession. But their contribution to the activity will become neutral due to weak demand in the euro area.

The context would finally have some good investment: the business outlook remains bleak, the conditions for granting loans were tightened before the massive intervention of the ECB and the margin of the companies is at an historic . Besides factors such as more timely consequences of the cold wave on construction.L business investment would decline so slightly in the first quarter 2012 (-0.4%), before rebounding in the second quarter (+0.8% ).

But the big downside of these forecasts is unemployment. INSEE entails loss of 49,000 in the market sector in the first half after a fall of 54,000 over the last six months of last year. Total employment would nevertheless be supported by intensified supported employment. Finally, the unemployment rate should continue to increase to 9.7% in France in June (10.1% including Dom).

The Indian airline Kingfisher Airlines could be stripped of his license for non compliance with safety standards and financial viability, said Tuesday the Indian Minister of Aviation, Ajit Singh.

The company in financial difficulty, does not meet its turnaround plan, said the minister who was speaking to reporters.

Kingfisher Airlines is now operating more than 18 aircraft, barely more than a quarter of its fleet.

The company, whose debt stands at $ 1.3 billion (995 million), could file for bankruptcy if banks continue to refuse to lend money for its operations rations from day to day. 

A massive decrease in thefts has reduced the turnover of the group and the carrier has almost no money to defray the salaries and meet its tax liabilities and its airport charges.

The chairman of Kingfisher, Vijay Mallya, will meet the civil aviation authorities Tuesday or Wednesday to discuss the Group's recovery, the minister added.

According to data from Airbus, current orders Kingfisher deal 32 single-aisle A320 Family, 20 A330s, five long-haul A350 and five A380 super-jumbo.

European shares reinforce their gains late Wednesday morning after the injection of almost 530 billion euros of liquidity into the European banking system as part of the second ; me refinancing long-term European Central Bank.

Traders polled by Reuters had expected that banks in the euro zone borrow some 500 billion euros, after borrowing 489 billion during the first operation to three years and at reduced rates which took place in late December.

Equity markets have increased their earnings briefly a few minutes after the announcement of the ECB before returning to previous levels. The euro also briefly mounted against the dollar before erasing its gains.

"The relaxation of collateral has worked well. We see that the central bank achieved its goal. This shows that the central bank is proactive and follows closely the situation of banks' refinancing , "said Raymond Renaud, president of Eleanor Capital.

"This is a very positive message about the state of mind in which the central bank. We see that the behavior of the central bank is increasingly close to that of the Fed."

"The market implications are positive. There are two issues of concern to markets: growth and financial stress. The subject of financial stress is very well addressed with the Greek record in the process of being resolved and the refinancing of banks, "he says

.. A ……. 11:45, the CAC 40 index advanced 0.3% after rising briefly to almost 1% and then he earned more than 0.5% shortly before the announcement of the ECB

. Other major European markets, London was almost unchanged, Frankfurt Milan took 0.5% and 0.8%

. From the European indices, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.5 also Eurofirst 300% and 0.4%

. Bank stocks, which anticipated the operation from the opening, are the first measure ; res to enjoy. Farm Credit clinching nearly 4% and 1.7% Societe Generale.

The performance of the German government bond (Bund) at 10 years was 1.827%, 1.825% cons shortly before the announcement.

The euro was trading around 1.3440 dollar, while it was around 1.3465 before the announcement.

This bonus is 150 euros for a single person and 320 euros for a couple.

The Christmas bonus paid to recipients of certain social minima, as RSA, will be repeated in December 2011, announced Monday the Minister of Solidarity and Social Cohesion Roselyne Bachelot. "I can confirm that the Christmas bonus will be paid. This represents 380 million euros for the most vulnerable," said the Minister during the launch of the 27th winter campaign of Eating Heart in Paris. "For a single person, that's about 150 euros paid in the coming days and for a family with two children, 320 euros," said Ms Bachelot.

In 2010, the Christmas bonus had been paid to the beneficiaries including the RSA (active solidarity income) and those of the SSA (specific solidarity allowance, paid to certain unemployed at the end of law). She was concerned 1.7 million beneficiaries.The Christmas bonus was awarded for the first time in 1998 by the Jospin government under pressure from movements of the unemployed who have been demanding for years that it is substantially increased and the scope of its beneficiaries is expanded.

BASF, the world leader in chemistry in terms of sales, announced Thursday a quarterly profit above expectations, but warned that its growth was slowing, clients sell their stocks.

"BASF's customers are more cautious, reduce inventory and postpone some of their orders in hopes of a possible drop in prices," explains the German group said in a statement.

Operating profit (EBIT) fell 11.3% to 1.96 billion euros, while analysts polled by Reuters anticipate an average of 1.89 billion euros.

The quarterly revenue was up 11.6% to 17.6 billion euros, according to consensus.

BASF has confirmed that the CAand EBIT adjusted for taxes on oil would experience a significant increase this year.

"However, growth slowed further over the first half of 2011. We expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter," warns the group.

French deputies have reduced by nearly 1, 5 billion to 80.321 billion, the deficit in the draft budget law for 2012 at the conclusion of the review, Monday, the first part, the revenue .

The deficit in the original was 81.772 billion euros.

MEPs will vote on Tuesday by a solemn vote of the whole of this first part of the finance bill that the Senate will consider in turn from 17 November.

The level of the deficit is likely to change again with the review by members of the review of the second part of the budget, the expenditure, then the entire text by Senators.

The global gathering of outraged this weekend has not gathered the crowds in France. The political context partly explains this failure. The "outraged" Place de la Bastille, May 10, 2011.

The numbers speak for themselves: 50,000 outraged gathered this weekend in Lisbon, 6000 in Frankfurt, 5000 in New York and … no more than a thousand in Paris. The movement which started on the Puerta del Sol square in Madrid to extend to many countries never really took off in the hexagon.But why mobilization is struggling to develop in France, whereas it is a French, Stéphane Hessel, who inspired the movement with his book "Unworthy you"? Several answers.

France is less badly off than its neighbors

"Here we do not have a gun to his head like the Greeks may have with their crisis and the Spanish with their real estate market," said Julien Bayou, co-founder of the collective generation and precarious present in the meetings of the "outraged" French held each week. He said the crisis is felt in France, but not the same as in some countries. It is also the opinion of Robi Morder, Chairman of the studies and research on student movements (germ). "Many young people, especially graduates can expect to enter the world of work without going through the uncertainty," said he in the daily La Croix."It is more complicated in southern Europe, where unemployment is higher among graduates than non-graduates," says researcher Monique Dagnaud to Liberation. The rate of youth unemployment to 45% in Spain when he was 23% in France.

Unfavorable political context

The arrival of the next presidential captures media attention for weeks, and the recent Socialist primary did not help. This reduces the echo can have the movement in France. In addition, it is optimistic about the possible alternatives that demobilizing troops, said Julien Bayou. "In Spain, Greece or even the United States, we have leaders that could be called the left in power. And we know that at the polls, the alternation will not work. So it is mobilized in the streets" , said he."While in France we have a right to be making a right-wing politics, and people in the head the next election." It is against this background that would explain the very high participation in the Socialist primary according to Julien Bayou. "We have seen other profiles went to move to vote in the second round of elections, especially young people," he adds.

The refusal of the "recovery"

In France, social movements are generally handled by the unions and some political parties. But the outraged French refused this form of "recovery", preferring a spontaneous movement. They realized soon and should change their modes of action. "It is true that initially we were quite aggressive vis-à-vis the associations and parties," recognized Delia Fernandez, the collective indignation, of Liberation."This has slowed the mobilization and preventing challenges to reach the street. For their part, they did not understand that we act in a pattern different from theirs. We will now try to cut corners."

The movement is ever convicted?

Not yet. The recent history of France showed that some mobilizations, it took several weeks before the mayonnaise takes. "For us, the mobilizations take time, it took two months for the movement against the First Job Contract off", said Robi Morder. To this researcher, do not bury a mobilization that may, one day to another, take a lot more important. "Be careful because there are embers, it would spark an escalation of the crisis or a big scandal for example, it really starts," said he.

According to the Minister of Economy, the European Commission proposal to increase the capital adequacy ratio of banks to 9% "can absorb a shock." Budget Minister Baroin regrets the refusal of PS on the constitutional question of the balance of finances

The proposal of the European Commission and its President Jose Manuel Barroso to recapitalize banks is "acceptable", said Friday the French Minister of Finance Baroin. "The position of the Commission Barroso and two days ago is acceptable. A level of 9% of equity" to be achieved by European banks "by the end of the first half of next year, it ' is, "he said on Europe 1 radio.

According to him, "9% in 2012, it can absorb shock." He reiterated that this concerned primarily banks that failed the stress tests at the beginning of summer and those who have passed narrowly.Banks should try to recapitalize "on the basis of their results" by distributing less dividends and less bonus, "warned Baroin, like the European Commission." They should not do so at the expense of economic activity, credit to individuals and business credit, "he said.

"If they can not, they will do in the markets, if markets are not enough they will find partners, and ultimately there will be a limited possibility of a European coordination" for public assistance, the minister added . He again suggested that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) provides that state aid to schools that need it, as its new statutes in force since Thursday so authorize.Germany believes he can do that for banks in countries which already have an international aid program (Greece, Portugal, Ireland).

Baroin But he reiterated that French banks do not find themselves in the position of having to seek government assistance. On Greece, the Minister confirmed the new position of France, which was resolved Thursday to recognize that the creditor banks would have to erase the country a majority of government debt. The discount provided to date to the private creditors of Athens, in the agreement of July 21, is 21%. "For three months the markets have evolved, they have deteriorated (…) We left at 21% July 21, it will be, it is almost certain," he said. "How high? Is being discussed."

He also felt that the figures circulating going "well beyond 50%" were "fanciful"."Three quarters of the Greek debt is held by private (…) We will not cut the whole," he said. "If it requires a private discount that is not tenable, then that will invest in Greece?" Asked Baroin.

He then said that the Heads of State and Government of the euro zone announce their decision on this issue at the summit in Brussels on 23 October, without specifying whether they would disclose the amount of the new haircut or just the principle. { P}

European authorities began Wednesday to prepare the banks of the continent to a possible failure of Greece.

For the first time since the crisis began, bank supervisors have decided to enhance their market sovereign debt held by banks in the EU as part of the recapitalization process in progress, officials said Wednesday European source.

The EBA, which will retain a definition of bank capital similar to that used in the last series of stress tests in July, will harden further 9% threshold due to equity "hard", reflecting the wishes of Paris and Berlin and by the European Commission on Wednesday in his "roadmap" to end the crisis.

"This is an exercise prudential.It is therefore logical that the ABE values ​​sovereign debt to market value or a value very close to that market, "said a source familiar with the discussions.

Regarding the definition of capital, "it corresponds to that used by the BEA in July.This is harder than the current one but is softer than that provided by the new Basel III standards, "the source said.

Once it receives the data that are currently provided by the banks, the EBA will prepare a proposed recapitalization of institutions of systemic Twenty-September for the meeting of EU finance ministers to be held October 21 , the day before the EU summit.

ROADMAP

This will be adopted simultaneously with the new bailout of Greece, which must reduce the debt of Athens so much greater than had been planned in July and then revise upward contribution "voluntary "the private sector.

According to several European sources, the losses that private investors must accept their obligations in the Greek part of the new plan should be between 30 and 50%, not 21% as expected.

Institute for International Finance (IIF), the discount would represent 39% when using the current market prices to assess the risk profile of the country

The roadmap of the Commission also calls on members of the euro area to complete without delay the ratification of the new European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).

Last country to have to run, Slovakia will vote by Friday, officials said Wednesday following the agreement between three parties of the government resigned and the main opposition party.

The roadmap, which calls in line with discussions held at the EBA to a building "significant" capital requirements of banks, also advocates a recapitalization through private funds, which will be supplemented by funds public and by loans from the EFSF in case of negative response from the market.

France, who insisted behind the scenes for several days to use the EFSF as an instrument of coordination in the recapitalization of banks, said Wednesday it would not appeal.

"EURO BONDS"

The other two parts of the document from the Commission concerning the acceleration of measures currently being discussed in Brussels, but designed to boost European growth and most importantly, the implementation faster than expected European Stability Mechanism (MES).

The MES, which was to come into force on 1 July 2013, finally begin to operate on 1 July 2012 according to the wishes of the Commission. It includes a device that allows a country to default on its debt in an orderly manner.

"The roadmap traces the path to the exit of the economic crisis for Europe. The partial answers to the various aspects of the crisis are no longer sufficient.We need to take the lead, "said Commission President José Manuel Barroso to the European Parliament.

"We must reach an agreement at the EU summit of 23 October," he said, also urging the leaders of the euro area to release the next tranche of aid to Greece.

He also confirmed that the EU executive would present by the end of the year a proposal to create a framework for joint programming of debt between members of the euro area, also known as "Euro bonds."