US & World News

Japanese stocks ended up Thursday, the figures for economic growth in January-March quarter have offset the worries about Greece and its banks.

The Nikkei gained 0.9% or 75.42 points to 8876.59 points, while the Topix broader took 1.12% or 8.28 points to 747.16 points.

Japanese gross domestic product increased by 1% from January to March compared with the previous quarter, helped by a rebound increase in consumption. In this context, investors have taken advantage of the recent decline of 12% of the Nikkei to do some shopping on the cheap.

Values, Credit Saison ended with a gain of 3.88% to 1,658 yen. Society of consumer credit has posted an annual net profit above market expectations.

China Petrochemical (Sinopec) is in talks with the Spanish oil group Repsol to buy its Argentine subsidiary YPF, so that its potential nationalization, reported Tuesday a Chinese site for financial information.

According Caixin.com, citing a source close to Sinopec, the Asian oil company has found a non-binding agreement to take control of YPF for more than 15 billion dollars (11.4 billion euros).

A Sinopec spokesman declined to comment on "market rumors".

For its part, the president of Repsol Antonio Brufau said at a press conference that the tanker had received many expressions of interest from international groups to take a stake in YPF but did not comment on the information on Sinopec. 

Also according to the site Caixin.com, Sinopec estimated oil reserves of YPF in Argentina have a potential for development. The group ensures to meet the requirements of the Argentine government to accelerate the development and production.

The Argentine President Cristina Fernandez announced Monday it would ask Congress for the expropriation of 51% of YPF's energy group, immediately attracting the warnings of important trading partners and in particular a strong reaction from Spain.

The blacklist of tax havens in 2012 was reduced to a trickle, from 18 to 8 members this year. The government is attacked for its laxity. The headquarters of the Cayman National Bank in George Town. The Cayman Islands belong to the core of tax havens.

The list of states considered by France as uncooperative in terms of transparency and exchange of tax information has been updated for 2012.

Surprised, she has been drastically reduced: exactly eleven states have been removed (Anguilla, Belize, Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Cook Islands, Islands and Caicos Turkey, Liberia, Oman, Panama, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have been removed from this list) for a single added (Bostwana). Among the endless extras, we can see Brunei, Marshall Islands, Montserrat, Nauru, Niue Island, or the Philippines.  

In total, in less then ten states listed on French blacklist of tax havens. The withdrawal was decided, either because these countries have concluded with France a bilateral agreement to exchange any information necessary for the application of their tax law, or in reciprocal because the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information in Tax Matters (OECD) has removed himself from the list.

Sometimes this can lead to some contradictions, as in the case of Costa Rica came out of the French list, even as the World Forum reminded last week that "the law might hinder the effectiveness of exchange of information ".

"A sustained vigilance"

Asked about this issue by Nicole Bricq, general rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the High Assembly, Valérie Pécresse has ensured that the states concerned were subject to sustained vigilance. "The challenge for the coming years was to put the agreements under vigilance" has justified the Minister of Budget. Before insisting: "I think we should be very firm on the implementation of agreements." But Valérie Pécresse admits, some countries with which France has signed agreements are still experiencing "pain points" in the image of Switzerland. Recently a delegation of Bercy was sent to Geneva to say that the implementation of the agreements was not satisfactory.

According to figures released by the Ministry, 77 000 French bank accounts abroad were identified in 2010, three times more than in 2007. Ms. Pécresse also said that tax audits had reported 16 billion euros in 2010, "1 billion more than in 2009," did she congratulated.

An enthusiasm not shared advocates the fight against tax havens. According to the NGO CCFD-Terre Solidaire (Catholic Committee against Hunger and for Development), at least 20 billion euros each year would continue to escape the budget of the French government because of tax evasion. In a report last October, the NGO also points out that according to the Tax Justice Network, it is not 8 but 54 states in the world who cultivate a "high degree of financial opacity", nearly a quarter countries of the planet should be placed on the gray or black list.

Specifically, the inclusion on the blacklist French is not trivial for states. For businesses located there are heavily taxed by France. The rate of withholding tax on passive income (dividends, interest, royalties) are 50% when they are poured into an entity present in the territory uncooperative. In addition, certain provisions of the parent-subsidiary regime are removed as the exemption of 95% of corporation tax on dividends paid by a subsidiary to its parent.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down nearly 1.5% Monday, accusing its fifth consecutive session of decline under the impact of both the employment figures for the month of March in the United States considered to be disappointing and the strong yen.

The Nikkei lost 1.47% or 142.19 points to 9,546.26 and the Topix broader, yielded 12.02 points (-1.46%) to 813.69 .

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in March, which should extend the debate on the need for the Fed to adopt new measures to support growth, although the unemployment rate to 8.2%, is at its lowest for three years. 

Since April 2, the Nikkei fell more than 5% and, with five sessions of decline in a row, the index experienced its longest run down since November.

That said, thanks to the good performance of financial stocks and those related to exports, the Nikkei had jumped more than 19% over the three months January to March, its best performance for a first quarter in 24 years.

"This is a temporary adjustment. We had perhaps gone too far, too fast, "said Naomi Fink as, technical analyst at Jefferies The

. Trading volume was very narrow due to the closure of most Western stock markets due to Easter Monday

.. ……. The dollar fell to a low of one month against the yen, a development that has resulted in a decline in export values, such as Honda (-2.43 %), Nissan (-3.39%) or TDK (-1.69%)

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The Spanish bank La Caixa confirmed Monday its intention to acquire its rival Banca Civica through its listed subsidiary CaixaBank to give birth to the first Spanish bank to Santander and BBVA.

CaixaBank offers the equivalent of 1.97 euro per share Banca Civica via a public exchange offer (the offer) that values ​​the target at 980 million euros.

A second wave of consolidation is underway in the Spanish banking sector. This is for banks to rebuild capital after losses from the bursting of the speculative real estate bubble in late 2007.

With total assets of 285 billion euros, CaixaBank is about four times larger than the Civic.

The shareholders of Banca Civica CaixaBank will receive five shares for every eight shares held. This represents a discount of 11% over the closing price Friday of Banca Civica. Quotations CaixaBank and Banca Civica were suspended Monday before the markets open.

The banks hope to have the approval of their shareholders by June 30.

Sources close to CaixaBank, it is not excluded that the institution has used a capital increase to finance its acquisition.

The government of Mariano Rajoy wants to reduce the number of banking groups to ten when they were over 40 before the crisis.

The new alignment will bring more difficult to find a partner for Bankia, particularly exposed to real estate, say observers.

Caixa said in a statement it would maintain its dividend to 0.231 euros per share in 2012.

Finance ministers of the euro area have endorsed Monday night the second aid package to Greece after the success of the restructuring process of the Greek debt, announced the Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker.

He said that the Greek debt level should be reduced to 117% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 through in terms of private sector involvement (PSI ) carried out last week via a bond exchange.

"We discussed the second Greek plan, including of course the issue of the PSI. With the completion of previous steps and the success of the PSI, the new plan is not only Greek in the starting blocks but has been adopted by political Eurogroup this (Monday) evening, "said one who is also Prime Minister of Luxembourg

. The formalization of this agreement in principle should be Wednesday morning, during a technical meeting of the euro area, said Jean-Claude Juncker

. He praised the high turnout private creditors to exchange debt and recalled that the initial objective was to reduce the level of debt at 121.5% of Greek GDP …….

.. "We agreed that this result better than expected should not be spent by the Greek authorities but retained as a safety cushion ;, "he said

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Over 80% of private creditors of Athens agreed to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose value has been reduced by 50%. The agreement paves the way for the release of a new loan to avoid bankruptcy the country unchecked. Three of the four ministers of the Greek far-right party Laos opposing the new austerity measures demanded by the creditors of the countries presented their resignations Friday, February 10

Greece has raised nearly 84% acceptance of all its private creditors, including only 85.8% of bondholders under Greek law, in connection with the restructuring of its huge sovereign debt, said Friday the Greek government. If Greece has avoided a default unchecked, this rate is still insufficient compared to the 90% target that was set by the government, explaining that he had to recommend the activation of collective action clauses attached to the bonds to be exchanged.

They are forcing carriers reluctant to accept the terms of trade and should at the final acceptance rate to 95.7%, the statement said the Ministry of Finance. "The holders of approximately 172 billion euros of bonds by Greek law" have accepted the proposal made by the Hellenic Republic on February 24 to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose face value was reduced 50% said the statement.  

"I wish to express my gratitude to all our creditors who supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and shared sacrifices of the people in its historic effort" praised the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement. The exchange of specific securities to be held Monday, March 12 for bonds by Greek law, but an extension until March 23 at 0800 GMT was granted to holders of non-Greek right to present their response to the proposal. This delay does not allow those who have already joined to the bid to reverse their decision.

The partners of Greece indeed want the private sector do its part in the rescue effort of the country, with a contribution sufficient to provide debt reduction to 120.5% of GDP in 2020, a ratio expected to guarantee the country's return to solvency. Successful restructuring opens the door to the contrary release 130 billion of loans provided by the euro area in late October. These two components, debt and bailouts, make up the second bailout of the country developed its international partners, after an initial infusion of 110 billion granted in 2010.

The European Central Bank has inflected his speech Thursday with a warning of unexpected inflation and a call to governments and banks in the euro area so that they take over in order to consolidate the stabilization of the economy of the block.

She has once again lowered its growth forecast for this year and next year after leaving its key rates unchanged, noting that the prospects for the economies of the area have e ; ty much worse without the massive liquidity injections carried out as part of its refinancing operations with two long-term (LTRO) in December and February.

The ECB began to see signs of stabilization at the beginning of the year, but the expected recovery could take longer than expected. "Available economic indicators confirm signs of stabilization in the euro area, but the economic outlook remains subject to downside risks," said ECB President Mario Draghi, when the press conference that followed the announcement of maintaining the refi rate to 1.0%.

Thus, for 2012, the ECB table does on a GDP growth between -0.5% and 0.3%. For 2013, it anticipates a range between 0% and 2.2%. Three months ago, the central bank of euro countries anticipated a change between -0.4% and 1.0% for 2012 and a range of 0.3% to 2.3% for 2013.

The recent 20% increase in oil prices has, however, prompted the ECB to raise its inflation forecast and anticipate a price increase of between 2.1% and 2.7 % this year, against a range of 1.5% to 2.5% previously. For 2013, the price increase should be between 0.9% and 2.3%, against a previous forecast of 0.8% to 2.2%.

"Because of rising energy prices and indirect taxes, inflation rates are now expected to remain above 2.0% in 2012, the prevailing upside risks", Mario Draghi warned.

The latest Reuters poll conducted among 74 economists, the ECB should keep rates unchanged this year and much of 2013.

Bund futures rose while European equities and the euro have reduced their earnings after the downward revision of growth forecasts of the ECB. 

"From our perspective, the projections (the ECB) are still relatively optimistic, while economic data showed no" stabilization ", especially in the periphery (euro area). The risks are clearly on the downside, "said Annalisa Piazza of Newedge Strategy

. NOT divisive ….. Draghi

… was confident that the operations of long-term refinancing of the ECB which resulted in the injection of more than 1,000 billion in cash in the banking system of the block it averted a crisis far more serious

. Borrowing costs for countries difficulty such as Italy and Spain have fallen sharply and Mario Draghi said that markets, including the interbank market, working again and that investors were income on assets denominated s euro

. "All things considered, we see that great progress has been made", he said. "Simply compare the situation as it was in November and what it is today."

The President of the ECB, however, called on governments and banks to take over to reinforce the recovery of European economies, calling for further progress in fiscal consolidation and further structural reforms.

The euro area economy has stabilized in recent months, partly because of lower rates in November and December the ECB and its massive refinancing operations long-term.

Its room for maneuver to fight against the crisis in the euro area seem small now, partly because of reserves that raises its action, particularly in Germany. 

The Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has sent a letter to Mario Draghi last month to express his concerns and the former head of economic studies of the ECB, and always trè s influence, Juergen Stark ruled Thursday in a German newspaper that the quality of the balance sheet of the ECB was "appalling".

Jürgen Stark had resigned within the ECB last year to protest against decisions which he felt they were not consistent with the mandate of the institution.

"My personal relationship with Jens is excellent … No one is isolated within the Governing Council and the Bundesbank, in particular, is not isolated," said Mario Draghi. "I'm really attached to the culture and tradition of maintaining price stability, the Bundesbank," he said.

In the letter to Mario Draghi and obtained by the German business daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Jens Weidmann was concerned about the imbalances in the interbank clearing system of the euro area TARGET 2 and risk that would result to the Bundesbank, which will be exposed in the unlikely event of a breakup of the euro.

Mario Draghi has sought to minimize these concerns and has declined to comment on the progress of the exchange transaction of Greek debt to be finalized e Thursday at 20:00 GMT at Athens risk of exposing themselves to a default.

European shares ended sharply up Thursday, supported by jobless claims near their lowest in four years in the U.S. and the new massive injection of liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday.

The CAC 40 index closed up 1.37% to 3499.73 points, new peak of year, having stumbled in the afternoon against the bar psychological 3,500 points. London took 1.02%, Frankfurt and Milan 1.25% 2.93%. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index has been 1.45%.

The increase was particularly driven by the banking sector, which jumped 1.85% after the sharp decline in borrowing costs of Spain and Italy on the market ; s bond.

Other U.S. indicators have yet been considered disappointing, including the ISM manufacturing index, which signals an unexpected slowdown in growth in industry in February, and spending construction, which fell against all odds in January for the first time in six months.

At the brink, the euro area has again died Tuesday morning at the fire that threatened to bring Greece but the road is still long and bumpy before the country only emerges from two years of an unprecedented crisis.

Under the terms of the agreement reached shortly before 4:00 Tuesday and after thirteen hours of negotiations, the Greek debt will be reduced to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 through a new public loan program of 130 billion euros and a restructuring of debt held by private creditors.

They have finally agreed to a 53.5% discount on their obligations through a share swap that will erase more than 100 billion Greek debt. 

The European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro area also participate in the plan by giving up some profits on Greek bonds they hold.

"We have reached an agreement on a new scale for Greece and a private sector that will lead to a significant reduction of the Greek debt (…) to ensure the future of Greece in the euro area, "said President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, after the meeting.

The euro jumped by about half a cent against the dollar after the announcement of this agreement by Reuters. 

ATHENS UNDER SURVEILLANCE

The restructuring of the Greek debt held by private creditors will commit this week, said Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos.

It is expected to close in early March, when the Greek authorities should also have implemented a list of priority measures in the program if they want to get the first disbursement.

These public funds are needed to Athens could repay 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20.

Troika EU-IMF-ECB, which oversees the implementation of reforms and conducts quarterly reports will be further strengthened and its resources increased. 

Under the second bailout, the European Commission will soon send dozens of permanent inspectors in Athens to ensure the smooth running of the technical program and monitor the implementation .

This presence on Greek soil will be accompanied by the creation of a special account to process a priority debt repayments Greek, whose principle is enshrined in the constitution within two months.

NO MIRACLE CURE

This agreement multistage was made necessary by the state of Greek public finances as they appeared in a confidential report prepared by the EU, the Central Europe ; enemies and the International Monetary Fund and obtained by Reuters. 

The document also shows that in case of slippage in reforms introduced in Athens or in terms of economy, Greece's debt could reach 160% in 2020, about his current level.

The new aid package will not be a miracle cure. The Greek economy shrank by 7% annual rate in the last quarter of 2011, more than expected, and the new austerity measures would further exacerbate the situation.

Diplomats and economists do not expect this new bailout plan that solves all economic problems overnight, Greek and many believe it will take at least ten years or more for fulfill this task.