US & World News

Banks in the world are preparing in peace to work with a new Greek currency.

Some financial institutions have never cleared the drachma of their computer systems after the adoption of the euro by Greece in 2001. They would be ready in a flash if the problem of debt forced the country to return to the good old banknotes and coins denominated in drachmas.

In any case, banks are accustomed to change: they have managed the transition of financial markets to the euro in 1999 and the emergence of currency as the Estonian kroon (up ; its replacement by the euro in 2011) and the Kazakh tenge with the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Moreover, it stirs behind the scenes since 2009, when the onset of the debt crisis in Greece, says Hartmut Grossman, American society ICS Risk Advisors works with banks Wall Street.

"Many companies, particularly in Europe and also here, studying it for a long time," said Hartmut Grossman. "All financial institutions are prepared for this eventuality. The departure of Greece in the euro area is not a new idea."

The European Union says it wants to keep the euro in Greece. Polls show that the Greeks want to keep the single currency. But they also voted last Sunday for parties opposed to the bailout of the EU and the International Monetary Fund, which has again raised doubts about the maintenance of the country within the Ten- Sept.

EXCHANGE CONTROL

If Greece leaving the euro, it certainly would impose exchange controls, say bankers, which would not prevent dealings in the new currency.

"The rooms specializing in foreign exchange markets can be ready fast enough. It depends on exactly how to pass out of the euro area, "said Lewis O'Donald, chief risk officer of London-based investment bank Nomura Japan

.. The currency ……. not freely tradable, as the Chinese yuan, followed in markets other than through the use of derivatives such as contracts term for example

. If Greece chooses a fixed exchange rate, everything will depend on the exchange ratio used. If the government chooses a euro for a new drachma, such parity would not be sustainable for very long and would involve major losses for banks Banks

. é ; tudié opportunities to protect themselves but few have taken concrete steps

. "Banks are very, trè s reluctant to start shouting fire. They know what's going on (would) and what would a panic, "said a London lawyer to advise financial institutions

. Most people just check the law applicable to their contracts, are covered against defects and examine all the legal problems that an outflow of Greece to the euro could raise … Simulations

…… have been made. But we do not really know how to operate an output

…. ….. "For transactions denominated in euro, what will their status in case of change in the nature of this currency?" asks Miles Kennedy, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers

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A faxless payday loan can be a great source of comfort in that it can give you breathing space not just for the current emergency but after as well. Still, you should really consider only getting the amount that you absolutely need to get you out of your current predicament.

Bertelsmann announced Wednesday for the first quarter of 2012 up 13% of operating profit and 5% of its turnover, confirming its annual target of moderate growth CA

The first media group in Europe – which has among others the broadcasting group RTL and publisher Random House – said that its operating profit (EBIT) reached 280 million euros against 248 million a year ago.

"For the full year, we are confident to achieve our goal of moderate growth in sales, EBIT stable at a high , and an increase in profit after minority interests, "said Thomas Rabe said in a statement, chief executive of Bertelsmann. 

RTL Group also announced Wednesday an increase in sales during the first quarter. Growth on French and German advertising markets offset a continued decline in Southern Europe and East.

Bertelsmann, which focuses on digital and abroad to spur growth, announced in late March a change in legal structure, which might suggest that the group is more strongly opposed to an introduction scholarship.

France has awarded Thursday 7.43 billion euros of long-term debt at better terms than in previous auctions, three days before the second round of presidential elections .

The Agence France Trésor (AFT) has issued an amount corresponding to the top of the announced range (6.5 to 7.5 billion euros).

Three of the four lines of Treasury bonds (OATs) offered the 4.25% in October 2017, the 3.25% in October 2021, the 3.0% in April 2022 (refer to the OAT ence to 10 years), interest rates have declined from previous auctions.

The weighted average rate of the OAT 6.0% in October 2025 stood at 3.31%. The AFT, which manages the state debt, does not provide a comparison, the bond not been available for many months.

The rate of OAT reference (benchmark) 10-year stood at 2.96% against 2.98% in April. After the auction, the rate fell further in the secondary market at 2.93%, the yield spread with the German Bund at 10 years, the euro area benchmark, contracting six basis points to 133.

Auctions of France and that of Spain, now the focus of investor concerns, helped ease the situation in the market for government bonds in the euro area.

The Spanish Treasury has placed 2.5 billion euros of bonds in three to five years – the maximum referred – but unlike AFT, he had to concede a higher risk premium than in previous auctions.

Overall demand for OAT reached 18.64 billion euros, providing a comfortable coverage ratio. 

"It seems that the relative uncertainty of the presidential election has not weighed heavily. They managed to raise the maximum referred to lower rates and with a coverage ratio decent, "said John Davies, rates strategist at WestLB.

"Holland has softened his speech on the new fiscal pact (…) and said he just wanted to add stimulus to growth," he says, adding that the positions of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi and Chancellor Angela Merkel have also evolved.

"We realize that the pure austerity can not walk. The conflict that the market feared when Holland came to power might not be as insurmountable as we thought at first sight, "said John Davies

…. ….. "Solid as usual, decent rates. Where is the political risk? "Said Peter Chatwell, rates strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London, about the French auction

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The new futures contract on OAT, due in June, hit a high (126.75) since its launch on April 16 on Eurex, the market for die riveted to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Around 12:30, he was earning 57 cents to 126.69 in a volume of more than 11,000 contracts. Open positions reached 43,223 against 58,000 batches on Italian BTP future, launched in 2009 by Eurex.

The Bund future, benchmark futures contracts in the euro zone fell by 14 cents to 141.59 in a volume of more than 202,000 contracts. Positions on maturity in June exceeded the 13 million lots.

Declining in most European countries, the activity has only slightly slowed in France in the fourth quarter 2011 before stagnating earlier this year, according to INSEE, which had considered the possibility of a recession. Better resistance does not prevent unemployment to continue rising. French executives come to the business district of La Defense

France is going through a little better air hole that affects the entire euro area. After avoiding a decline in activity in the fourth quarter – unlike Germany, it should just happen to stabilize its GDP over the first three months of the year before starting to rebound slowly, according to forecasts revised upwards published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics.  

"For France, we expect a stable activity in the first quarter, zero percent growth, and then a sluggish 0.2% in the second quarter," he told reporters Sandrine Duchene, head of the Department of conditions of INSEE. In December, INSEE had planned a short recession with contraction of economic activity in the last quarter 2011 and first quarter 2012, before there is a growth of 0.2% on October to December last year. "We had a shock on the euro area in the summer of 2011 we are coming out" and "recovery is slow," noted Ms. Duchene presenting the note of economic INSEE March. But gross domestic product (GDP) "regain its pre-crisis level in the forecast horizon," that is to say, late June, said during a press conference an analyst of the INSEE, Dorian Roucher.  

The institute has also revised sharply upwards its forecast of growth acquisition for 2012 that would be achieved by mid-year: 0% predicted in December, it would increase to 0.5%. This represents growth of GDP this year if the last two quarters remained the same as the second quarter. Ms. Duchene explains this revision by the better than expected growth in the last quarter of 2011 and the upward revision of its forecasts for the first half.

Consequently, the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin announced an increase in the government's forecast for growth of the French economy in 2012, now expected at 0.7% against 0.5% previously.

The engines of growth remain low

Optimism, however, must be very measured. The chief economist at INSEE emphasizes that household consumption, the traditional engine of growth in France, "remains low". She would grow by 0.2% in the first quarter before stagnating in the second. And because "a 0.3% decline in purchasing power in the first half."

Several factors contribute to this weakness. Purchasing power would suffer first the relatively high level of inflation (2.2% yoy). In addition, earned income will slow due to the deteriorating labor market. This will not only result in further loss of 49,000 jobs in the first half but it will also affect wage negotiations. Finally, household incomes will be further tapped by taxes, supported by measures enacted in Finance Act which come into force in 2012.

France can not be counted as late last year on exports. Thanks to sales of Airbus, they have indeed been the main driver of growth in the fourth quarter that helped prevent the recession. But their contribution to the activity will become neutral due to weak demand in the euro area.

The context would finally have some good investment: the business outlook remains bleak, the conditions for granting loans were tightened before the massive intervention of the ECB and the margin of the companies is at an historic . Besides factors such as more timely consequences of the cold wave on construction.L business investment would decline so slightly in the first quarter 2012 (-0.4%), before rebounding in the second quarter (+0.8% ).

But the big downside of these forecasts is unemployment. INSEE entails loss of 49,000 in the market sector in the first half after a fall of 54,000 over the last six months of last year. Total employment would nevertheless be supported by intensified supported employment. Finally, the unemployment rate should continue to increase to 9.7% in France in June (10.1% including Dom).

At the brink, the euro area has again died Tuesday morning at the fire that threatened to bring Greece but the road is still long and bumpy before the country only emerges from two years of an unprecedented crisis.

Under the terms of the agreement reached shortly before 4:00 Tuesday and after thirteen hours of negotiations, the Greek debt will be reduced to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 through a new public loan program of 130 billion euros and a restructuring of debt held by private creditors.

They have finally agreed to a 53.5% discount on their obligations through a share swap that will erase more than 100 billion Greek debt. 

The European Central Bank and national central banks in the euro area also participate in the plan by giving up some profits on Greek bonds they hold.

"We have reached an agreement on a new scale for Greece and a private sector that will lead to a significant reduction of the Greek debt (…) to ensure the future of Greece in the euro area, "said President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, after the meeting.

The euro jumped by about half a cent against the dollar after the announcement of this agreement by Reuters. 

ATHENS UNDER SURVEILLANCE

The restructuring of the Greek debt held by private creditors will commit this week, said Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos.

It is expected to close in early March, when the Greek authorities should also have implemented a list of priority measures in the program if they want to get the first disbursement.

These public funds are needed to Athens could repay 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20.

Troika EU-IMF-ECB, which oversees the implementation of reforms and conducts quarterly reports will be further strengthened and its resources increased. 

Under the second bailout, the European Commission will soon send dozens of permanent inspectors in Athens to ensure the smooth running of the technical program and monitor the implementation .

This presence on Greek soil will be accompanied by the creation of a special account to process a priority debt repayments Greek, whose principle is enshrined in the constitution within two months.

NO MIRACLE CURE

This agreement multistage was made necessary by the state of Greek public finances as they appeared in a confidential report prepared by the EU, the Central Europe ; enemies and the International Monetary Fund and obtained by Reuters. 

The document also shows that in case of slippage in reforms introduced in Athens or in terms of economy, Greece's debt could reach 160% in 2020, about his current level.

The new aid package will not be a miracle cure. The Greek economy shrank by 7% annual rate in the last quarter of 2011, more than expected, and the new austerity measures would further exacerbate the situation.

Diplomats and economists do not expect this new bailout plan that solves all economic problems overnight, Greek and many believe it will take at least ten years or more for fulfill this task.

Economic growth should be zero in France in the first quarter of 2012, said Wednesday the Bank of France on the basis of its monthly business survey.

In January, the BoF confirmed predict zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2011.

If these assumptions prove, France would be off, just months before presidential and parliamentary elections, a recession (a term used when the product inside Gross contracts two consecutive quarters) feared by some economists.

The business climate indicator in industry published by the BoF was stable at 96 in January.

For services, the indicator fell by one point to 93. 

In industry, "forecasts indicate a continuation of the activity for the coming weeks," reads the statement said.

For services, "the forecast is a stability-oriented activity in the short term."

The rate of capacity utilization in manufacturing industry is almost stable, below its average level of long period.

Order books were close to the normal level, linked to a slight increase in new orders. Stocks of finished goods are kept close to the desired level and finished goods prices continued to increase slightly.

In services, the division recorded a slowdown in growth, due to a decline in temporary work and computer activities. The numbers have stabilized overall and prices have paused in their advance.

Standard & Poor's on Tuesday cut score of 15 large banking groups, mainly in Europe and the United States as a result of a major review of its rating criteria.

In total, the U.S. agency has reviewed the status of 37 major global banks. In particular, it confirmed the notes of BNP Paribas and Societe Generale."The lowering of S & P both on European and U.S. banks has undermined confidence in the markets," said Terry Pratt, IG Markets.

"This decision has overshadowed the progress made in Brussels on the issue of scaling the EFSF."

Another analyst, Guy Lebas of Janney Montgomery Scott, said that these banks will see their funding costs rise.

This month, officials from S & P indicated that they would gradually announce the ratings updated for more than 750 banking companies in the world, starting with the principal. New announcements are expected in the coming weeks.

For large banks, the rating adjustments are larger than S & P has provided for the entire industry.

This bonus is 150 euros for a single person and 320 euros for a couple.

The Christmas bonus paid to recipients of certain social minima, as RSA, will be repeated in December 2011, announced Monday the Minister of Solidarity and Social Cohesion Roselyne Bachelot. "I can confirm that the Christmas bonus will be paid. This represents 380 million euros for the most vulnerable," said the Minister during the launch of the 27th winter campaign of Eating Heart in Paris. "For a single person, that's about 150 euros paid in the coming days and for a family with two children, 320 euros," said Ms Bachelot.

In 2010, the Christmas bonus had been paid to the beneficiaries including the RSA (active solidarity income) and those of the SSA (specific solidarity allowance, paid to certain unemployed at the end of law). She was concerned 1.7 million beneficiaries.The Christmas bonus was awarded for the first time in 1998 by the Jospin government under pressure from movements of the unemployed who have been demanding for years that it is substantially increased and the scope of its beneficiaries is expanded.

European shares were down in early trade Friday, the pressure on interest rates fueling fears that some fragile countries in the euro zone no longer be able to refinance at an affordable cost.

At 9:03, Paris passed under the 3000 points and lost 0.83% to 2985.19 points.

At the same moent, London lost 0.95%, Frankfurt and Milan 0.83% 0.73%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index of the principal values ​​of the euro gave up 0.69%.

The Spanish 10-year rate rose above 7% (7.11%) and Italy's is 6.94% while the German Bund yield the same maturity is around 1.87% and that of the French OAT around 3.6%.

Boeing said Thursday that the Indonesian airline Lion Air was about to sign an agreement for the purchase of 201 737 MAX 29 and 737-900 for a total, based on list prices, from 21.7 billion dollars (16 billion euros).

"This transaction, when finalized, will be the largest order of civil aircraft in the history of Boeing, both in value and number of aircraft ordered," said a statement from the U.S. aircraft manufacturer.

He adds that the agreement with Lion Air, Indonesia's largest airline, also has rights to purchase 150 additional aircraft.

Boeing said that U.S. President Barack Obama will attend the signing ceremony for the purchase of 230 aircraft.

Like the A320neo from the A320, the MAX 737 is the version of 737 for fuel savings. The first copies should be delivered in 2017.