US & World News

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth in 2010, citing the strength of the economies in Asia and rising private demand in the U.S., while warning against the risks inherent in the crisis sovereign debt of the euro area.

The downside risks have increased significantly, mainly because of turmoil in financial markets again since the beginning of the crisis of sovereign debt, but it is unlikely that we are seeing a recession "W", says IMF .

It carries its global growth forecast to 4.6%, while it predicted 4.2% in April, but left unchanged at 4.3% for 2011.

"In our baseline forecast, there is nothing like a recession in 'W'," said Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF during the presentation of the document.

"In this context, the new forecast is based on the implementation of measures to rebuild confidence and stability, particularly in the euro area."

Olivier Blanchard said that the statement of results of resistance testing was a step towards greater transparency while stressing the need for a return of public spending to sustainable levels.

Austerity PESERA IN GREAT BRITAIN

Under one scenario considered by the IMF, based on the assumption that the consequences of the crisis of European sovereign debt as violent as those of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global GDP growth would be reduced 1.5 percentage point in 2011.

The continuing fragility of the U.S. labor markets and housing problems of the euro area and the slowdown in manufacturing activity in Asia have raised many questions among investors who wonder about the possibility of a sudden slowdown in growth for the remainder of the year.

The IMF lowered its growth forecast Thursday for 2011 in Great Britain, Canada, in the euro area, emerging economies and Japan.

According to IMF forecasts, GDP growth in the euro zone will be limited to 1% this year, according to what it expected in April, but it should stand at 1.3% in 2011, 0.2 percentage point less than what was previously announced.

The U.S. economy should she enroll at 3.3% in 2010, against an estimate of 3.1% three months ago, and 2.9% in 2011, against 2.6%.

The most brutal review announced Thursday is to the liabilities of the UK whose new government has begun a course of austerity that may affect growth.

The IMF expects UK growth of 1.2% in 2010, 0.1 percentage point lower than April and 2.1% in 2011, down 0.4 percentage points.

Retail sales fell in Spain in May, their second consecutive month of decline, a trend that could jeopardize the growth of the economy in the second quarter.

This decrease of 1.9% compared to May 2009 when adjusted for seasonal variations made after the fall of 2.4% in April, said the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

This further decline is partly due to segments of the consumer electronics and power.

Retail sales in Spain had increased in March for the first time since November 2007.

The renewed weakness in consumption could undermine the government forecasts a growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in each quarter this year after recovering from recession in the first three months.

"The retail sales figure is wrong and shows that people are worried about the future. The demand is low because people increase their savings," said Mariano Alierta M & G Valores.

"There are many uncertainties and we can expect continued weakness in retail sales until the job prospects are improving."

Leaders of major industrial nations and major emerging countries meet Sunday in Toronto with a challenge to coordinate their policies to make sustainable global economic recovery, they speak in jumbled order.

The G20 will also take stock of their efforts to regulate banks and markets, a stated priority in their previous meetings to ensure that the financial crisis of late 2007, which degenerated into an unprecedented global depression since 1929 not recur.

This is the fourth summit meeting of the group since the end of 2008 in Washington at the height of the crisis.

Composed of the United States, its major European allies, Japan and also China, Brazil, India and Russia, the G20, which accounts for 80% of world trade, has meanwhile become the main forum international discussion on economic and financial issues.

If the recession, which was fought by hundreds of billions of dollars of public money, now belongs to the past, the challenge now is to consolidate growth globally still considered fragile.

In this context, the United States, joined by other countries such as India, have expressed concern in public policies to reduce their deficit announced by several European countries precipitated by the financial storm that nearly won Greece, one of most indebted nations.

SAME PURPOSE

The approach of the G20, which was preceded by a G8 summit in rural Ontario, has nevertheless been marked by a desire for peace between the two sides of the Atlantic.

"We are aiming the same direction, that of a long-term sustainable growth that puts people at work," said U.S. President Barack Obama.

According to a draft statement obtained by Reuters, the G20 countries are close to agreement on a reduction by half of their deficits, which were inflated by the crisis, over a period of three years. But they also leave the choice to each act, at least initially, at their own pace to take account of its economic situation.

The draft communique circulating recognizes the existence of more or less advanced stages of recovery depending on the country and the delicate balance needed between supporting growth and consolidation of public finances.

"There is the risk that a fiscal adjustment synchronized several major economies negatively impact recovery.There is also the risk that the absence of a consolidation needed to affect your confidence and hinders growth, "reads the text.

The main source of global growth today is the economy of China and other major emerging countries, which share the same concern about the debt problems of old industrialized countries.

In G20, the latter's debt is expected to average 107.7% of this year gross domestic product, against 80.2% in 2007 to the beginning of the crisis, while the forecast for the emerging countries of the group are 37%.

VIOLENCE IN TORONTO

Also according to the draft communique, the G20 should welcome the inflection in a more flexible management of its currency, the yuan, by China, which some hope that it will lead to currency appreciation.

They should also commit to strengthen the soundness of their banks tightening their standards of capitalization.

Germany, France and Britain are determined to push their project for the taxation of financial institutions, which are also U.S. support but is opposed by Canada and several developing countries.

The G20 is ready to leave each country free to impose such a fee to recover the substantial resources committed by states to save their banks from the crisis.

G20 leaders who gathered in Toronto Saturday night for dinner, have four working sessions on the menu this Sunday, including a luncheon before the summit ended around 16:30 (2030 GMT).

The center of economic capital of Canada has been the scene of clashes Saturday between police and anarchist militants dressed in black at the end of anti-G20, which brought together several thousand people generally peaceful. The police reported at least 130 arrests.