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Declining in most European countries, the activity has only slightly slowed in France in the fourth quarter 2011 before stagnating earlier this year, according to INSEE, which had considered the possibility of a recession. Better resistance does not prevent unemployment to continue rising. French executives come to the business district of La Defense

France is going through a little better air hole that affects the entire euro area. After avoiding a decline in activity in the fourth quarter – unlike Germany, it should just happen to stabilize its GDP over the first three months of the year before starting to rebound slowly, according to forecasts revised upwards published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics.  

"For France, we expect a stable activity in the first quarter, zero percent growth, and then a sluggish 0.2% in the second quarter," he told reporters Sandrine Duchene, head of the Department of conditions of INSEE. In December, INSEE had planned a short recession with contraction of economic activity in the last quarter 2011 and first quarter 2012, before there is a growth of 0.2% on October to December last year. "We had a shock on the euro area in the summer of 2011 we are coming out" and "recovery is slow," noted Ms. Duchene presenting the note of economic INSEE March. But gross domestic product (GDP) "regain its pre-crisis level in the forecast horizon," that is to say, late June, said during a press conference an analyst of the INSEE, Dorian Roucher.  

The institute has also revised sharply upwards its forecast of growth acquisition for 2012 that would be achieved by mid-year: 0% predicted in December, it would increase to 0.5%. This represents growth of GDP this year if the last two quarters remained the same as the second quarter. Ms. Duchene explains this revision by the better than expected growth in the last quarter of 2011 and the upward revision of its forecasts for the first half.

Consequently, the Minister of Economy and Finance Baroin announced an increase in the government's forecast for growth of the French economy in 2012, now expected at 0.7% against 0.5% previously.

The engines of growth remain low

Optimism, however, must be very measured. The chief economist at INSEE emphasizes that household consumption, the traditional engine of growth in France, "remains low". She would grow by 0.2% in the first quarter before stagnating in the second. And because "a 0.3% decline in purchasing power in the first half."

Several factors contribute to this weakness. Purchasing power would suffer first the relatively high level of inflation (2.2% yoy). In addition, earned income will slow due to the deteriorating labor market. This will not only result in further loss of 49,000 jobs in the first half but it will also affect wage negotiations. Finally, household incomes will be further tapped by taxes, supported by measures enacted in Finance Act which come into force in 2012.

France can not be counted as late last year on exports. Thanks to sales of Airbus, they have indeed been the main driver of growth in the fourth quarter that helped prevent the recession. But their contribution to the activity will become neutral due to weak demand in the euro area.

The context would finally have some good investment: the business outlook remains bleak, the conditions for granting loans were tightened before the massive intervention of the ECB and the margin of the companies is at an historic . Besides factors such as more timely consequences of the cold wave on construction.L business investment would decline so slightly in the first quarter 2012 (-0.4%), before rebounding in the second quarter (+0.8% ).

But the big downside of these forecasts is unemployment. INSEE entails loss of 49,000 in the market sector in the first half after a fall of 54,000 over the last six months of last year. Total employment would nevertheless be supported by intensified supported employment. Finally, the unemployment rate should continue to increase to 9.7% in France in June (10.1% including Dom).

Of the 35 billion budgeted in 2010, 25 billion has been spent on 880 projects ranging from education to digital through aviation. It is too early to measure the impact of these investments on the economy. President of the Republic, Nicolas Sarkozy, has held 27 June 2011 at the Elysee a press conference on the big loan.

In March 2010, financial storm, the government launched the national loan to support the economy: the key to an envelope of 35 billion euros to finance research and innovation. Two years later, the device has already helped to select and provide funding to 880 projects on 3,000 proposals received.  

"Today it is 25 billion spent, but in a few days, there will be 27 billion," says Alain Juppe, who was with Michel Rocard, co-chairman of the Supervisory Commission and Great Loan Rene Ricol, Commissioner General investment, a press conference-record March 20.

€ 6 billion for education

Among the 880 projects already selected, higher education is carving the lion's share. 8 and excellence initiatives, designed to bring out the poles leading academics, have been funded for more than 6 billion euros. In addition, eight technology research institutes combining private and public research have received a total of 2 billion.  

In industry, it is aviation, and in this case EADS, with its two subsidiaries Airbus and Eurocopter, which has hit the jackpot: € 1.4 billion for two demonstrators, one of composite airplane, another helicopter of the future. The banking industry, announced in February by Nicolas Sarkozy, should also benefit from a contribution of one billion euros through the big loan.

In sustainable development and the digital economy, the budget allocated to the various projects are less important. They concern, for the first, low-carbon or renewable energies, for the second, the digitization of content, cloud computing, e-health or e-education.

No doubt, the teams have carbureted big loan. They still have two new programs announced yesterday university hospital oncology in Ile de France and Toulouse. But it is still early to assess the impact of these investments for the future of the economy and the role of France in international competition.

The Indian airline Kingfisher Airlines could be stripped of his license for non compliance with safety standards and financial viability, said Tuesday the Indian Minister of Aviation, Ajit Singh.

The company in financial difficulty, does not meet its turnaround plan, said the minister who was speaking to reporters.

Kingfisher Airlines is now operating more than 18 aircraft, barely more than a quarter of its fleet.

The company, whose debt stands at $ 1.3 billion (995 million), could file for bankruptcy if banks continue to refuse to lend money for its operations rations from day to day. 

A massive decrease in thefts has reduced the turnover of the group and the carrier has almost no money to defray the salaries and meet its tax liabilities and its airport charges.

The chairman of Kingfisher, Vijay Mallya, will meet the civil aviation authorities Tuesday or Wednesday to discuss the Group's recovery, the minister added.

According to data from Airbus, current orders Kingfisher deal 32 single-aisle A320 Family, 20 A330s, five long-haul A350 and five A380 super-jumbo.

Over the past three months, the U.S. stock market has regained its levels of late 2007. And in Europe, France has rebounded even stronger. The improvement could well last until May. But then train for the return of volatility. Explanations. The stock market rally seen through the evolution of the Dow Jones: an increase of nearly 18% in almost four months.

Equity markets have recovered tone. Wall Street has lost ground with the financial crisis, is now finding its levels in late 2007 after a 11% jump in three months. For the first time in its history, its flagship index, the Dow and the Nasdaq, dominated by technology, rose this week above the psychological threshold of 13,000 points and 3,000 points, during the same session. European stock markets are pronounced the same trend, the Cac 40 in Paris even showing since mid-February a gain of 21% which allowed him to retake the course of 3600 points.

The rally in shares is not new. It has already lasted three months and we owe largely to central banks, said Benjamin Melman, Director absolute performance at Edmond de Rothschild IM. The rebound in stock prices coincided with the opening last December, to tap liquidity from the ECB or the provision of banks over 1000 billion euros of resources at low cost. This proactive reassured investors who constantly claim that the central bank acts as a lender of last resort to stem the contagion of debt. But his determined action has contributed to lower interest rates in the bond market and away along the spectrum of the credit crisis that threatened the European economy. The Fed has also facilitated the rise of the stock market by deciding to extend until 2014 its ultra accommodative monetary policy. Of course, the rescue of Greece has also helped to ease investors. Although all issues are not resolved, a page of the European crisis has turned, says Francois Chevallier, strategist at Bank economist and Leonardo.

And the good news for investors is that the rally is not over yet. Price increases in January and in February was made with very little volume, Melman says Benjamin. Many investors have been waiting patiently for several issues are resolved. They return on the market today. We assist in some way, a second wave of purchases, which explains the recent acceleration in price rises.

How long can it last? Difficult to say. Looking at the ratios of current profits, we say that most of the journey was made, says François Chevallier. However, the stock market has another engine, that of profit expectations. But they will remain well oriented in the short term due to the favorable business surveys. The ZEW index in Germany and that of the Philadelphia Fed – two leading indicators of the industry – improved further in March, says the expert. This means that the plateau expected in the industry has not yet occurred. The next ISM index, which takes the pulse of American industry, may still show an increase in early April, at the same time giving a new impetus to the market.

As of May, however, the stock market could consolidate, ie enter a phase of slower growth. Indeed, the production rates in the industry expected to slow. Moreover, the return of valuations at pre-crisis level will lead to profit taking, says Francois Chevalllier. Tensions on the bond markets – the U.S. 10-year rates rose in a few weeks from 1.8% to 2.3% – would create air holes on the stock market, adds Benjamin Melman. Volatility will brief comeback. The opportunity for investors to remember an old adage stock: sell in may and go away.

According to the Chinese premier, the yuan has appreciated 30% since 2005. It is now close to its equilibrium value. Beijing could stabilize once more its currency to the chagrin of Western countries. A 100-yuan face a $ 100 bill.

The military budget and export quotas of rare earths are not the only subjects of friction between China and Western countries. There's one in particular which is recurrent and that may well not be resolved anytime soon: the yuan. And despite official statements sometimes included ambiguous way too optimistic by some Western obervateurs.

Early on the course of the Chinese currency, deemed too low, the subject of criticism. In the U.S., the yuan is accused of trade deficit and destroy jobs. Following the Forum summit of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), last February, U.S. President Barack Obama, once again called for an appreciation of Chinese currency. His hopes are to go up in smoke.

According to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, speaking at its annual press conference, the last of its mandate, the yuan is now approaching an equilibrium value. It is indeed appreciated 30% since 2005 and has changed little since the beginning of the year. In other words, you must not rely on an appreciation of Chinese currency in the coming months. "We will accelerate reform of the exchange rate", has certainly also said Wen. But it was soon clear "by giving more scope to fluctuations in both directions." In other words, the yuan revaluation claimed to body and cries by the major developed countries, is absolutely not announced.

The braking worrying the Chinese economy is no stranger to these statements. The Chinese export growth has moderated from 21% in the third quarter to 14% in the fourth quarter. In February, China has even recorded a record trade deficit.

China undergoes economic cooling in other countries, experts note of BNP Paribas. The decline in exports is explained clearly by the decline in sales to European countries (22% of total exports in 2011) and to a lesser extent, the United States. Another measure of trade intensity, the current account surplus of China has reached 2.8% of GDP in 2011. "It is below the international norm of 3% of GDP", says Chinese Premier.

Under these conditions Beijing, which needs growth to ensure social peace, has every interest in stabilizing its currency. This lever has been used during the crisis: the 2008-2010 period, Beijing was chosen to secure the dollar before losing a little ground in 2011. In fact, since mid-2008, the yuan has only appreciated that about 5% against the greenback, causing the exasperation of the United States.

In 2012, BNP Paribas' experts provide at best a 3% appreciation of the Chinese currency. But its "internationalization," however, is expected to continue at a rapid pace. Eventually, indeed, China dreams of being less dependent or concurrent, of the dollar. Since 2008, it is redoubling its efforts to force the yuan internationally. Since 2009, Chinese companies can charge in yuan business transactions with foreign countries. Since 2010, foreign companies can borrow yuan, via Hong Kong on an offshore market. Air Liquide has issued bonds last September in yuan to 185 million euros. For two or three years, the yuan also sees its role reinforced by the swap agreements (that is to say, temporary exchanges of cash) made between the central bank of China and its neighboring countries (Korea, Malaysia, Singapore).

Recently, the Austrian Central Bank has signed an agreement with the Chinese central bank, becoming the first Asian central bank not be able to make investments in yuan! Finally, China allowed Japan to buy the first time in its history of Chinese government bonds. The Middle Kingdom does not stop there. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, requires the input of the yuan in the composition of the SDR, the IMF's currency. But it will be hard to convince world leaders, as are many disputes between China and the West.

Fifteen of the nineteen major institutions have passed the exam successfully. Good students already announced increases in dividends to pamper their shareholders. Following the results, JPMorgan announced a dividend increase.

The Central Bank of the United States said Tuesday that fifteen of the nineteen banks that it had submitted to the 2012 version of its stress tests were successfully passed this examination.

The coregistered are: Ally, the former GMAC, saved from bankruptcy by the state in 2009 and still belonging to the Treasury, the insurer MetLife, SunTrust, Bank of Atlanta and Citigroup.  

The former world number one, also saved from bankruptcy by the state, failed narrowly on two criteria: its own funds fall below the hard limit (4.9%, against 5% required) and its leverage ("Tier 1 leverage ratio") also (2.9%, against 3% required).

Other banks (American Express, Bank of America, The Bank of New York Mellon, BB & T, Capital One, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions Financial, State Street, Wells Fargo US Bancorpet have passed the exams successfully

. In the wake of the results, several large U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, have announced they will upgrade the remuneration of their shareholders

. At JPMorgan is revalued quarterly dividend by 20% from 25 to 30 cents per share. In addition the bank, the largest in the U.S., has announced a new share repurchase program of up to $ 15 billion, including up to $ 12 billion will be spent this year, the balance in the first quarter in 2013.

"We are pleased to be in a position to increase our dividend and to introduce a new share buyback program," said the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, said in the statement. "We expect to repurchase at least the number of shares we will issue the form of bonuses for employees. Beyond this, we plan to repurchase the securities that when we generate more capital than is required to fund organic growth, and when we think it brings a great value for shareholders, "he added.

At Wells Fargo, the dividend jumped 83% from 12 to 22 cents. The bank said it would buy back more shares than last year, without quantifying its projects.

Finance ministers of the euro area have endorsed Monday night the second aid package to Greece after the success of the restructuring process of the Greek debt, announced the Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker.

He said that the Greek debt level should be reduced to 117% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020 through in terms of private sector involvement (PSI ) carried out last week via a bond exchange.

"We discussed the second Greek plan, including of course the issue of the PSI. With the completion of previous steps and the success of the PSI, the new plan is not only Greek in the starting blocks but has been adopted by political Eurogroup this (Monday) evening, "said one who is also Prime Minister of Luxembourg

. The formalization of this agreement in principle should be Wednesday morning, during a technical meeting of the euro area, said Jean-Claude Juncker

. He praised the high turnout private creditors to exchange debt and recalled that the initial objective was to reduce the level of debt at 121.5% of Greek GDP …….

.. "We agreed that this result better than expected should not be spent by the Greek authorities but retained as a safety cushion ;, "he said

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Over 80% of private creditors of Athens agreed to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose value has been reduced by 50%. The agreement paves the way for the release of a new loan to avoid bankruptcy the country unchecked. Three of the four ministers of the Greek far-right party Laos opposing the new austerity measures demanded by the creditors of the countries presented their resignations Friday, February 10

Greece has raised nearly 84% acceptance of all its private creditors, including only 85.8% of bondholders under Greek law, in connection with the restructuring of its huge sovereign debt, said Friday the Greek government. If Greece has avoided a default unchecked, this rate is still insufficient compared to the 90% target that was set by the government, explaining that he had to recommend the activation of collective action clauses attached to the bonds to be exchanged.

They are forcing carriers reluctant to accept the terms of trade and should at the final acceptance rate to 95.7%, the statement said the Ministry of Finance. "The holders of approximately 172 billion euros of bonds by Greek law" have accepted the proposal made by the Hellenic Republic on February 24 to exchange their debt securities against other securities whose face value was reduced 50% said the statement.  

"I wish to express my gratitude to all our creditors who supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and shared sacrifices of the people in its historic effort" praised the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a statement. The exchange of specific securities to be held Monday, March 12 for bonds by Greek law, but an extension until March 23 at 0800 GMT was granted to holders of non-Greek right to present their response to the proposal. This delay does not allow those who have already joined to the bid to reverse their decision.

The partners of Greece indeed want the private sector do its part in the rescue effort of the country, with a contribution sufficient to provide debt reduction to 120.5% of GDP in 2020, a ratio expected to guarantee the country's return to solvency. Successful restructuring opens the door to the contrary release 130 billion of loans provided by the euro area in late October. These two components, debt and bailouts, make up the second bailout of the country developed its international partners, after an initial infusion of 110 billion granted in 2010.

The European Central Bank has inflected his speech Thursday with a warning of unexpected inflation and a call to governments and banks in the euro area so that they take over in order to consolidate the stabilization of the economy of the block.

She has once again lowered its growth forecast for this year and next year after leaving its key rates unchanged, noting that the prospects for the economies of the area have e ; ty much worse without the massive liquidity injections carried out as part of its refinancing operations with two long-term (LTRO) in December and February.

The ECB began to see signs of stabilization at the beginning of the year, but the expected recovery could take longer than expected. "Available economic indicators confirm signs of stabilization in the euro area, but the economic outlook remains subject to downside risks," said ECB President Mario Draghi, when the press conference that followed the announcement of maintaining the refi rate to 1.0%.

Thus, for 2012, the ECB table does on a GDP growth between -0.5% and 0.3%. For 2013, it anticipates a range between 0% and 2.2%. Three months ago, the central bank of euro countries anticipated a change between -0.4% and 1.0% for 2012 and a range of 0.3% to 2.3% for 2013.

The recent 20% increase in oil prices has, however, prompted the ECB to raise its inflation forecast and anticipate a price increase of between 2.1% and 2.7 % this year, against a range of 1.5% to 2.5% previously. For 2013, the price increase should be between 0.9% and 2.3%, against a previous forecast of 0.8% to 2.2%.

"Because of rising energy prices and indirect taxes, inflation rates are now expected to remain above 2.0% in 2012, the prevailing upside risks", Mario Draghi warned.

The latest Reuters poll conducted among 74 economists, the ECB should keep rates unchanged this year and much of 2013.

Bund futures rose while European equities and the euro have reduced their earnings after the downward revision of growth forecasts of the ECB. 

"From our perspective, the projections (the ECB) are still relatively optimistic, while economic data showed no" stabilization ", especially in the periphery (euro area). The risks are clearly on the downside, "said Annalisa Piazza of Newedge Strategy

. NOT divisive ….. Draghi

… was confident that the operations of long-term refinancing of the ECB which resulted in the injection of more than 1,000 billion in cash in the banking system of the block it averted a crisis far more serious

. Borrowing costs for countries difficulty such as Italy and Spain have fallen sharply and Mario Draghi said that markets, including the interbank market, working again and that investors were income on assets denominated s euro

. "All things considered, we see that great progress has been made", he said. "Simply compare the situation as it was in November and what it is today."

The President of the ECB, however, called on governments and banks to take over to reinforce the recovery of European economies, calling for further progress in fiscal consolidation and further structural reforms.

The euro area economy has stabilized in recent months, partly because of lower rates in November and December the ECB and its massive refinancing operations long-term.

Its room for maneuver to fight against the crisis in the euro area seem small now, partly because of reserves that raises its action, particularly in Germany. 

The Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has sent a letter to Mario Draghi last month to express his concerns and the former head of economic studies of the ECB, and always trè s influence, Juergen Stark ruled Thursday in a German newspaper that the quality of the balance sheet of the ECB was "appalling".

Jürgen Stark had resigned within the ECB last year to protest against decisions which he felt they were not consistent with the mandate of the institution.

"My personal relationship with Jens is excellent … No one is isolated within the Governing Council and the Bundesbank, in particular, is not isolated," said Mario Draghi. "I'm really attached to the culture and tradition of maintaining price stability, the Bundesbank," he said.

In the letter to Mario Draghi and obtained by the German business daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Jens Weidmann was concerned about the imbalances in the interbank clearing system of the euro area TARGET 2 and risk that would result to the Bundesbank, which will be exposed in the unlikely event of a breakup of the euro.

Mario Draghi has sought to minimize these concerns and has declined to comment on the progress of the exchange transaction of Greek debt to be finalized e Thursday at 20:00 GMT at Athens risk of exposing themselves to a default.

The net job creation show an increase of 25% in February. Almost all sectors involved in the upturn. Employees of General Motors in the United States

Hiring in the private sector has greatly accelerated in the United States in February, according to the monthly survey on employment of the consulting firm HR ADP released Wednesday. Private companies have created that month 216,000 more jobs than they destroyed, ADP says in a statement

The balance of hires, adjusted for seasonal variations, appears and up 25% from January and very close to that given to the median estimate of analysts (218,000 net job creation).

ADP has revised upward its estimate of 2% of hires in the previous month, to 173,000. "The increase in employment [... remained] solid "in February, and" almost all sectors of the economy created jobs, "writes ADP, noting that" the average monthly hires totaled 200,000 over the past five months "…. According to the survey

….. ADP, February was the twenty-fifth consecutive monthly rise of private employment in the United States

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