US & World News

The Nikkei closed up 0.57% on Friday, supported by recent U.S. macroeconomic statistics found promising, although its gains have been limited by investor caution before the announcement of monthly figures of employment in the States USA.

The Nikkei index closed at 9,114.13 points and the broader TOPIX, took 0.52% to 823.70 points.

The unexpected recovery of promises in real estate sales and falling jobless claims in the United States has reassured investors about the state of the global economic recovery and leveraged buyouts of overdrafts.

The higher growth forecast of the European Central Bank has also supported the upward movement of the market.

Groups exporters have particularly benefited from this situation. Canon and Sony have taken and 1.28% respectively and 2.39%.

However, the distributor Fast Retailing has lost 1.2% after announcing a decline in August from 9.3% of sales on a comparable basis of its Uniqlo brand.

On Friday a new conditional easing of U.S. monetary policy to a deterioration in economic conditions in the U.S., the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, has tried to appease the "hawks" who favor the Fed the fight against inflation, in order to rally them to his latest position.

This attitude may make it possible to Ben Bernanke to have the support of the Fed in cases of substantial worsening of the U.S. economic slowdown.

"The statistics should convince the most timid members (of the monetary policy committee of the Fed)," said Julia Coronado, senior economist at BNP Paribas.

When the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke has compiled a table Friday gloomy economic outlook and reiterated the tools available to the central bank to stimulate the recovery.

The statements of the successor to Alan Greenspan, however, were more nuanced than those of the central bank on Aug. 10 after its last meeting, which had resulted in new measures to support the economy and credit.

The main decision that day, namely the resumption of redemptions of government bonds in the long term (Treasuries) without further inflate the stock of the central bank, has been widely discussed within the institution.

Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered that this decision would give the market the impression that the Fed was closer to a new monetary easing significant than it actually was.

ASSESSING THE RISKS OF A NEW FLEXIBILITY

Leaders of the Federal Reserve also wonder if the recent weakening of the U.S. economy is not just a slump before further acceleration of growth, instead of viewing it as a warning about the ability of growth support job creation.

Purchases of "Treasuries and have sent the wrong signal to the markets, while some criticized the swelling of the institution's balance sheet, increased by more than half since the beginning of the financial crisis in late 2008, to 2,300 billion (1,809 billion euros).

The statements by Ben Bernanke Friday were therefore able to reassure some of the skeptics.

While acknowledging the slowdown in the economy, the Fed chairman said that the conditions for a recovery in growth next year seemed satisfied.

"The president did not prepare the country to a recession" double dip ", stated Dana Saporta, Credit Suisse.

Ben Bernanke also acknowledged that it was difficult to assess the real impact of increased purchases of Treasuries and a lowering of interest rates, already extremely low, which the Fed pays banks for their cash have limited effects.

He also explained that one of the factors on which the Fed will base future decisions would be a further slowdown in inflation, already low, which increases the risks of deflation.

For some economists, the pace of recovery has slowed U.S. and statements from Ben Bernanke augur further action by the Fed in the months ahead.

"The general tone was to 'wait and see', despite showing signs of being not only that economic activity in the United States has returned below its potential growth but also to risk a further slowdown," wrote January Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs in a note.

In outlining the conditions under which the Fed could decide new measures to prevent a relapse into recession, Ben Bernanke has probably facilitated the meeting a consensus around him on the FOMC.

The economic recovery in the euro area slowed slightly in August but companies are more optimistic for the months to come despite differences between countries in the region, show the first results of Monday's monthly survey Markit.

The PMI services, calculated on the basis of responses from purchasing managers of nearly 2,000 firms in the euro area fell slightly to 55.6 against 55.8 last month, but it is slightly better that 'expected as economists polled by Reuters had expected the average to 55.5.

It is over for the twelfth consecutive month the 50 between expansion and contraction of activity.

If growth slows, firms in the services sector, dominant in the 16 countries using the euro as their currency, appear rather more optimistic about the future, the business expectations index falling up to 68 1 after 66.5 in July.

"The recovery still has some momentum but we will witness a slowdown from the exceptional figures observed in the second quarter," warns Rob Dobson of Markit.

France and Germany, the two largest economies in the euro area, strongly rebounded in the second quarter, but this trend was not found in Spain and Italy.

"THE TAKEOVER COULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN"

Activity in the industrial sector has also slowed.The PMI manufacturing index is indeed stood at 55.0 in the first estimate in August against 56.7 in July, while economists polled by Reuters had expected 56.2.

The sub-index of production rose from 58.7 in July to 57.2 in August.

The composite index combines the two sectors, fell to 56.1 against 56.4 expected and 56.7 in July.

"The PMI decline in August in the euro area is a sign that the recovery could begin to slow," said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics.

"The decline was mainly driven by declines in the index of the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany, suggesting that the weakening global demand could affect the resumption of exports, as was feared."

If companies continue to recruit, the pace of hiring slowed slightly from July, as the index of employment in manufacturing rose from 51.1 last month to 51.0 in August.

Economic growth in the euro zone came out at 1.0% in the second quarter, more than expected, but it should slow to 0.4% for the period July to September and 0.3% for the three months year.

ADDICTION TO GERMANY AND FRANCE

Especially, the growth differences between countries in the region have increased compared to previous periods.

"We note that (growth) is highly concentrated in the major nations, it has not extended to other peripheral nations and, in many respects, this gap is widening," said Rob Dobson.

"It's the same as in the second quarter, which saw a solid growth, particularly in Germany and to a lesser extent in France, marking a certain imbalance in relation to performance rather mixed for the Spain, Italy and Greece.So, apart from the two main countries, the situation is average. "

The PMI flash Germany show an acceleration of activity in services and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, quite contrary to that exhibited by France.

In the euro area, the sub-index of producer prices reached its highest level since October 2008, at 50.3 against 49.4 in July. It is only the second time since October 2008 this indicator appears above 50.

This suggests that companies are now able to pass some of their higher costs to their customers.

Veolia Environnement publishes interim results up, thanks to the rising prices of raw materials recycled, but expressed caution about prospects for recovery of the waste market in the second half.

The world leader in environmental services has estimated that an operational perspective, the second half might look like in the second quarter, during which the situation has improved for his work "clean".

"The economic recovery is still extremely fragile, it is difficult to decide on the level of commodity prices (…), nor even on the level of volumes we observe in the final months of year.That is why we prefer to be cautious, however, said its chief financial officer, Pierre-François Riolacci, during a conference call.

"In activity cleanliness, it is true that we have observed a reversal between the first and second quarters," he said, mentioning in particular "a tremor on the books" in France and the United States.

"We tend to say that the second half might look like in the second quarter, in which case that we would generally quite favorable."

Veolia has reiterated that it was on the full year free cash flow positive after dividends and an increase in its recurring operating income.

The group also confirmed that it was three billion euros in sales over the period 2009-2011 – from 1.3 billion achieved in 2009 and 766 million in the first half of 2010 – and was continuing the implementation of a savings program overall 250 million for 2010.

VEOLIA-TRANSDEV COULD ENTER STOCK MARKET TO 2ND HALF 2011

Pierre-Francois Riolacci said the group would "do everything to exceed" its savings target and that the transfers could exceed one billion euros this year.

In the first six months of the year, the savings program has contributed to the growth of cash flow (CFO) operational Veolia up to 132 million euros.

The Chief Financial Officer also considered that the proposed merger with Transdev in the passenger could be completed by year end or early 2011.

"The most likely scenario (from the IPO of the new entity) is the second half of 2011.This is our central scenario, "he said.

Veolia in the first half net profit group share of 374 million euros (+69.9%), an operational CFO 1,885,000 (+0.2% at constant exchange rates), operating profit of 1.125 million ( +7.9% at constant exchange rates) and a turnover of 17.177 million (-3.3% at constant exchange rates).

According to the consensus reached by the editor of Reuters, analysts on average expected a net profit of 346 million euros, an operating cash flow of 1.908 million and a turnover of 16.924 million.

Recurring operating income of Veolia appears in turn to 1.078 million euros at 30 June, an increase of 6.6%.

At 9:30, the track was down 1.84% at 21.30 euros while the CAC 40 gained 0.69%. Analysts based in London, "the weak economy continue to weigh on the figures in the second half."

The group's net financial debt stood at 16.027 million euros at June 30th against 15.127 million in late 2009, largely because of an unfavorable effect of foreign exchange of 674 million.

The French carmakers are struggling to convince the stock market despite strong results and promising new models, preferring investors since the beginning of their German competitors.

Titles PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault have lost 1.3% and 2.7% since 1 January, while BMW has jumped 55%, 64% of Volkswagen and Daimler by 42%.

As part of its quarterly results, BMW wins 4% Thursday afternoon and brought in its wake the entire European car signs the largest increase sector, which had not occurred the week at last accounts of Renault and PSA, yet robust.

Daimler has a market capitalization of 43.5 billion euros, Volkswagen and BMW 34 billion 26 billion.Renault weighs only about ten billion in stock and PSA about five billion.

"The French builders, very dependent on volume, are penalized by the fears that now surround the market with the disappearance of the scrappage scheme", says Kristina Church, an analyst at Barclays Capital."Nobody really wants to invest in these values as the horizon of the second half of 2011 and will not be more clear."

"The Germans, however, the presence of an upscale offer a strong position earlier in the emerging markets are positive for margins, hence the preference of investors."

Barclays Capital, to "underweight" on the two French groups but to "overweight" on BMW and VW, filed Monday for preferred values of analysts, on the basis of the estimates I / B / E / S. Renault arrives in fourth place, while the third six months earlier, and PSA advanced to fifth place when he was second earlier.

The leading trio is exclusively Germanic.BMW is the preferred value, affirmative action comes from Volkswagen and Daimler comes second to third place.

ALWAYS ON DOUBTS ON THE REST OF THE YEAR

This partly explains the suspicion that PSA has signed the largest drop in the CAC 40 last Wednesday, giving up 4% on the day it released interim results good. Friday, showed that Renault is its strength, which did not prevent long hesitation before the title is moving upward to close with a gain of 1.75%.

Action PSA also a victim of profit taking after rally seen since late May, is penalized by the uncertainties surrounding the position of mid-range group.Morgan Stanley also prefers Renault, although the bank regrets that it, unlike PSA, has not yet been set a target of annual profit and has merely a forecast of cash flows.

"The common perception is that you can not make money on cars simple and small.This assumption may no longer be true that decade it ", says Morgan Stanley.

The difference in treatment between the French and Germans are also due to a time lag effect "scrappage" which has enabled the sector to weather the storm.

In Germany, where support has disappeared in September 2009, the market has been adversely affected early in the year, while in France, their gradual disappearance is felt that in recent months.

THE FRENCH EXPECTED TO TOP WORLD

Daimler and BMW shares have gained 40% and 50% in 2009, while PSA and Renault have almost doubled their course.

As for Volkswagen, Europe's number one, he has won more than 70% in stock last year.

If we compare the performance since late 2008, the contrast between the two sides of the Rhine becomes less striking: BMW has won more than 100% Volkswagen 93.5%, nearly 94% PSA and Renault over 90%. Over the period, Daimler took 56.5%.

Despite regular incursions of the French – the Latitude Renault and Peugeot 508 are the latest examples – the segment of large high-end road is the prerogative of the German trio BWM, Audi (Volkswagen) and Mercedes (Daimler). Manufacturers Hexagon will therefore still to convince investors that their strategic choices are viable and that the success of the Mégane, Duster, C3 and 3008 will be achieved sustainably in their accounts.

The Paris Motor Show in early October in Paris, they provide such an opportunity.After two shows at the American held in late 2009 and early 2010 by PSA for the presentation to analysts of its new strategic plan and the new image of the Peugeot brand, it was the turn of Renault to unveil its future strategy in February 2011 .

"Analysts are always fond of presentation that management anticipates," said Kristina Church. "They like to be told of strategy whatsoever."

Crude prices have come down on Wednesday after the announcement of an unexpected rise in crude inventories in the U.S. and very cautious statements of the President of the U.S. Federal Reserve on the economic situation.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for delivery in September ended a decline of $ 1.02, or 1.31%, to 76.56 dollars a barrel.

U.S. crude reserves rose 400,000 barrels last week, when economists expected a drop instead of 1.4 million barrels.

In addition, the chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed was ready to take additional measures as necessary to sustain growth given the high level of uncertainty.

ZenithOptimedia noted for his third consecutive growth forecast for global advertising market this year after surprisingly strong spending by advertisers in the U.S. and Europe in the first half.

The agency purchases of space, a subsidiary of Publicis, now expects growth of 3.5% in 2010 against 2.2% previously, considering that all regions should show some growth, even Europe West.

For France, ZenithOptimedia has raised its forecast to 1.7% in 2010 against 1.1% previously, largely thanks to television which has greatly benefited from the opening to competition of Paris and gambling Online.

"The bulk of the upward revision is in North America and Western Europe (…), But these regions grow more slowly than most emerging countries, "ZenithOptimedia said in a statement, adding that emerging countries should support the growth of the global advertising market in the coming years.

The agency expects growth of 2.4% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2012 in industrialized countries, compared to respective rates of 9.1% and 9.8% expected in emerging markets, with support from Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

For the global market, ZenithOptimedia has raised its growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.5% this year and confirmed its expectations of a 5.3% rise in 2012, after a fall of 10.3% in 2009.

ZenithOptimedia now expects a solid growth of 2.2% in Western Europe this year, despite concerns about the debt of countries in the euro area, against 0.4% previously.It anticipates a gradual increase in advertising spending in 2011 and 2012, according to the request after the entry into force of austerity plans.

HEXAGON A CONTRARIO IN 2011

In France, where business confidence is wavering, the agency expects a slowdown in market growth in 2011 and 2012, unlike the global trend.

The strongest contrast in the forecast from ZenithOptimedia North America, where the agency now expects growth of 1.3% instead of down 1.5%, benefiting from a strong recovery in demand and consumer confidence.

Television has gone through the crisis relatively well advertising, consumers tend to spend more time at home with the development of new technologies such as HDD recorders. Even more dominant in emerging markets, the television should represent 40.8% of the global advertising market in 2012 against 39.2% in 2009.

Internet advertising spending, third medium after television and press, expected to reach 17.1% in 2012 against 12.7% in 2009 to promote the growth of mobile internet and social networks.

Despite advances in EU Member States towards the Parliament, the reform of the European financial supervision remains blocked until at least early September, we learned from diplomatic and parliamentary.

On Tuesday, however, a new compromise between the bloc on this reform, in gestation for over a year, had hinted at an early agreement.

But further discussions held Wednesday morning between representatives of governments, the Parliament and the Commission were ultimately unsuccessful and the participants decided to cancel the meetings scheduled next week to do again until the fall.

"There will be no further talks before late August or early September and I think we can say that the talks failed, it was said parliamentary sources.

"The core issue is Article 6 which concerns the principle of direct supervision exercised at European level by the new supervisors," the source said, adding that the objective was to find a consensus with all states, including Great Britain.

A second source later confirmed the postponement of talks and held that "one or two additional steps the council (of EU ministers) in the direction of the European Parliament would be required to obtain an agreement."

In a statement to Reuters, the EU Internal Market Commissioner, Michel Barnier, said the objective was to find "a dynamic and balanced compromise.

"We are in the final straight but there is still some way to go," he said.

TECHNICAL MEETINGS

Without result, Wednesday's meeting helped to bring some positions of Parliament and Member States.

This applies to certain powers given to the European Council of systemic risk and the three new authorities in supervising the banking, insurance and markets.

These could permit, under certain conditions, products or financial practices, such as short sales.They would also be binding mediation in cases of disagreement between two supervisors.

The principle that the authorities could apply directly to a settlement without going through the national supervisor, in emergencies, is also acquired, as it does not undermine the budgetary sovereignty of States.

Moreover, these emergencies could be declared by the authorities but would instead be covered by the European Parliament alongside the Member States.

In contrast, the principle of supervision at European level for the European entities of pan-European nature, such as clearing houses, remains a problem.

A source close to the discussions, meetings at technical level should be organized in the coming days to work on these issues.

The Belgian presidency of the EU should work to include this item on the agenda of the meeting of ambassadors of Twenty-seven of the next week to lay the groundwork for negotiations in September.

The objective remains that the states and the Parliament adopt these texts in the first half of September so that authorities can start to work as planned on 1 January 2011.

Aon Corp., the world's first insurance broker, announced Monday it would buy the company for HR services to Hewitt Associates, about 4.9 billion dollars (3.9 billion euros) in cash and stock.

The offer represents Aon Hewitt $ 50 per share, a premium of 41% over its closing price Friday.

The transaction will allow Aon to gain a foothold in the area of human resources and benefits outsourcing and compete and Mercer, a subsidiary of Marsh and McLennan rival.

Aon plans to merge Hewitt with his own business consulting and outsourcing and expects an annual turnover of 4.3 billion dollars for the new entity to be called Aon Hewitt.

Russ Fradin, CEO of Hewitt, Hewitt will lead Aon.

Aon expects the transaction will have a positive impact on its performance in 2011 and 2012 and expects about $ 355 million of cost reductions in 2013, mainly administrative.

It is the second major operation in a year in the area of the board after the merger between Towers Perrin and Watson Wyatt for $ 3.5 billion, which gave birth to the number one global human resources consulting.

Aon intends to fund the acquisition with a bridge loan of 1.5 billion dollars and a bank loan of one billion dollars.

The action of Hewitt jumped more than 30% before the official opening of trading after closing Friday at 35.40 dollars at the NYSE. Aon closed at 38.34 dollars.

PSA Peugeot Citroen announced a 16.9% jump in sales of vehicles in the first half, including a one-point increase its market share in Europe, which should increase over the year.

The first French car manufacturer and number two in European sales confirmed, however, anticipate a decline of about 9% of European car market, while China is expected to grow at double-digit pace in Latin America with a number.

PSA sales totaled 1.856 million units in the first half, including 1.618 million for assembled vehicles (+16.8%)

In Europe, PSA registrations rose 7.7% to 1.214 million units in the first half, giving a market share of 14.6%, up one point.

The group estimates that the global auto market grew 13% over the period, with leaps of 27% in China and 11% in Latin America contrasts with a fall of 27% in Germany, while France fared with an increase of 6%.

Automakers are preparing an overall drop in sales in the second half, with the gradual disappearance of scrap premiums and caution potential buyers respond to economic uncertainty.

In France, the new car registrations fell in May and June, marking the last stages of the effect of scrappage, reduced on 1 January 1000 to 750 euros and reduced to EUR 500 this month .

PSA, which will publish its interim results on July 28, said in April anticipate a largely positive EBIT in the first six months of the year instead of a simple return to the green before.

The group, whose sales growth has exceeded expectations in the first quarter, however, had warned that the environment might be difficult in Europe in the second half.

Renault will release its own trade performance Thursday.

PSA Action closed up 3.63% to 21.56 euros on Tuesday, giving a market capitalization of 5.05 billion euros. It lost 8.9% since the beginning of the year after surging 95% in 2009.