US & World News

On Friday a new conditional easing of U.S. monetary policy to a deterioration in economic conditions in the U.S., the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, has tried to appease the "hawks" who favor the Fed the fight against inflation, in order to rally them to his latest position.

This attitude may make it possible to Ben Bernanke to have the support of the Fed in cases of substantial worsening of the U.S. economic slowdown.

"The statistics should convince the most timid members (of the monetary policy committee of the Fed)," said Julia Coronado, senior economist at BNP Paribas.

When the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke has compiled a table Friday gloomy economic outlook and reiterated the tools available to the central bank to stimulate the recovery.

The statements of the successor to Alan Greenspan, however, were more nuanced than those of the central bank on Aug. 10 after its last meeting, which had resulted in new measures to support the economy and credit.

The main decision that day, namely the resumption of redemptions of government bonds in the long term (Treasuries) without further inflate the stock of the central bank, has been widely discussed within the institution.

Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered that this decision would give the market the impression that the Fed was closer to a new monetary easing significant than it actually was.

ASSESSING THE RISKS OF A NEW FLEXIBILITY

Leaders of the Federal Reserve also wonder if the recent weakening of the U.S. economy is not just a slump before further acceleration of growth, instead of viewing it as a warning about the ability of growth support job creation.

Purchases of "Treasuries and have sent the wrong signal to the markets, while some criticized the swelling of the institution's balance sheet, increased by more than half since the beginning of the financial crisis in late 2008, to 2,300 billion (1,809 billion euros).

The statements by Ben Bernanke Friday were therefore able to reassure some of the skeptics.

While acknowledging the slowdown in the economy, the Fed chairman said that the conditions for a recovery in growth next year seemed satisfied.

"The president did not prepare the country to a recession" double dip ", stated Dana Saporta, Credit Suisse.

Ben Bernanke also acknowledged that it was difficult to assess the real impact of increased purchases of Treasuries and a lowering of interest rates, already extremely low, which the Fed pays banks for their cash have limited effects.

He also explained that one of the factors on which the Fed will base future decisions would be a further slowdown in inflation, already low, which increases the risks of deflation.

For some economists, the pace of recovery has slowed U.S. and statements from Ben Bernanke augur further action by the Fed in the months ahead.

"The general tone was to 'wait and see', despite showing signs of being not only that economic activity in the United States has returned below its potential growth but also to risk a further slowdown," wrote January Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs in a note.

In outlining the conditions under which the Fed could decide new measures to prevent a relapse into recession, Ben Bernanke has probably facilitated the meeting a consensus around him on the FOMC.

The economic recovery in the euro area slowed slightly in August but companies are more optimistic for the months to come despite differences between countries in the region, show the first results of Monday's monthly survey Markit.

The PMI services, calculated on the basis of responses from purchasing managers of nearly 2,000 firms in the euro area fell slightly to 55.6 against 55.8 last month, but it is slightly better that 'expected as economists polled by Reuters had expected the average to 55.5.

It is over for the twelfth consecutive month the 50 between expansion and contraction of activity.

If growth slows, firms in the services sector, dominant in the 16 countries using the euro as their currency, appear rather more optimistic about the future, the business expectations index falling up to 68 1 after 66.5 in July.

"The recovery still has some momentum but we will witness a slowdown from the exceptional figures observed in the second quarter," warns Rob Dobson of Markit.

France and Germany, the two largest economies in the euro area, strongly rebounded in the second quarter, but this trend was not found in Spain and Italy.

"THE TAKEOVER COULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN"

Activity in the industrial sector has also slowed.The PMI manufacturing index is indeed stood at 55.0 in the first estimate in August against 56.7 in July, while economists polled by Reuters had expected 56.2.

The sub-index of production rose from 58.7 in July to 57.2 in August.

The composite index combines the two sectors, fell to 56.1 against 56.4 expected and 56.7 in July.

"The PMI decline in August in the euro area is a sign that the recovery could begin to slow," said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics.

"The decline was mainly driven by declines in the index of the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany, suggesting that the weakening global demand could affect the resumption of exports, as was feared."

If companies continue to recruit, the pace of hiring slowed slightly from July, as the index of employment in manufacturing rose from 51.1 last month to 51.0 in August.

Economic growth in the euro zone came out at 1.0% in the second quarter, more than expected, but it should slow to 0.4% for the period July to September and 0.3% for the three months year.

ADDICTION TO GERMANY AND FRANCE

Especially, the growth differences between countries in the region have increased compared to previous periods.

"We note that (growth) is highly concentrated in the major nations, it has not extended to other peripheral nations and, in many respects, this gap is widening," said Rob Dobson.

"It's the same as in the second quarter, which saw a solid growth, particularly in Germany and to a lesser extent in France, marking a certain imbalance in relation to performance rather mixed for the Spain, Italy and Greece.So, apart from the two main countries, the situation is average. "

The PMI flash Germany show an acceleration of activity in services and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, quite contrary to that exhibited by France.

In the euro area, the sub-index of producer prices reached its highest level since October 2008, at 50.3 against 49.4 in July. It is only the second time since October 2008 this indicator appears above 50.

This suggests that companies are now able to pass some of their higher costs to their customers.

Sequana reported a net profit of 6 million euros in the first half and confirms its target of operating performance in 2010 than that of last year.

The group diversified paper, which has returned to profitability in 2009, said in a statement that the third quarter continue its policy of raising prices, already implemented during the first six months of the year.

This price increase will allow the group to offset rising raw material costs.

"The policy of increasing operating margins and debt reduction will be continued in the second half," says Sequana.

In the first six months of the year, the stationer has reached a turnover up 3.8% to 2.14 billion euros.

Its net debt stood at 670 million euros at end-June 2010, down from 732 million a year earlier.

"The policy of increasing operating margins and debt reduction will be continued on the second half," advised Sequana.

The action Sequana closed Tuesday at 11.50 euros. It is up 44% since the beginning of the year.

The Dutch chemical group Akzo Nobel announced that it will continue to monitor its costs despite having already reached its 2011 margin target and announced quarterly results exceeded expectations.

Around 7:15 GMT, Akzo Nobel has risen by 3.33% to 45.765 euros, while the index grouping the European chemical values yielded 0.34%.

The first painting company in the world said it had reached its goal in the second quarter EBITDA margin for 2011, set at 14%.

Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), excluding items, rose to 614 million euros, thanks to rising demand and cost reduction.

The nine analysts polled by Reuters had expected a net profit of 576 million euros. During the same period the previous year, the group had reported an EBITDA of 506 million euros.

"The developed markets remain difficult. The pressures on prices of basic materials and shortages are expected to continue in the third quarter.We will keep a watchful eye on the market environment and the costs will continue to be managed aggressively, "said Chief Executive Hans Weijers, in a statement.

The chief financial officer Keith Nichols said it expected an increase in material prices between 4% and 5% this year but it believes that the situation should start to improve from the end of the third quarter, which should not threaten margins.

Akzo Nobel said it would inform investors of his future ambitions September 28 in London.

In the second quarter, its revenue increased 13% to 3.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations which projected sales of between 3.58 and 3.8 billion euros.

U.S. rivals PPG and Sherwin-Williams also beat the consensus in the second quarter but they were cautious for the remainder of the year.

His rivals in the Benelux, DSM and Solvay, must publish their quarterly Thursday and Aug. 3, respectively.

Crude prices have come down on Wednesday after the announcement of an unexpected rise in crude inventories in the U.S. and very cautious statements of the President of the U.S. Federal Reserve on the economic situation.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for delivery in September ended a decline of $ 1.02, or 1.31%, to 76.56 dollars a barrel.

U.S. crude reserves rose 400,000 barrels last week, when economists expected a drop instead of 1.4 million barrels.

In addition, the chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed was ready to take additional measures as necessary to sustain growth given the high level of uncertainty.

Wall Street finished up Friday, ending the week at its largest weekly increase since the beginning of the year when the new season begins Monday results.

The Dow Jones industrial average thirty biggest U.S. has been 0.58%, 58.73 points to 10,197.72, while the S & P 500 index fund managers, has awarded 7.68 points, 0 , 72%, to 1077.93.

Supported by the announcement that Google will be able to resume its activities in China, Nasdaq, heavily weighted in technology, advanced 21.05 points, 0.97% to 2196.45.

For the week, the Dow took 5.3%, the S & P gained 5.4% and the Nasdaq was up 5%.

"Investors are putting their concerns to the background because they expect a good season of results," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco?

"But chances are that next week is volatile. The results could certainly good but the forecasts may not be."

Google announced on Friday that Chinese authorities had renewed his license, a decision that allows him to remain on the largest Internet market in the world.

The Internet portal closed up 2.39% to 467.46 dollars.

Alcoa will open Monday after closing the ball of quarterly results.Experts say the findings by the American aluminum should satisfy investors, even if the decline in metal prices has prompted analysts to revise their forecasts downward. Alcoa has been 2.05%.

A reversal of the trend, Johnson & Johnson dropped 1.37% to 60.54 dollars after announcing that it had recalled more Tylenol and prescription drugs after complaints from consumers.

The recovery should continue at low speed in France by the end of the year, with a growth rebound in the second quarter but remain moderate then provides INSEE.

In his memo on the economy released Wednesday, the Statistical Institute expects a 0.5% of GDP in the second quarter and growing 0.4% in the next two quarters.

For the full year, growth would be 1.4%, in line with the government's forecast and just enough to stabilize unemployment.

The acquired at year end would be +0.6% and should in this case a 0.8% growth in each quarter of 2011 for achieving the government target of 2.5% was calculated INSEE which the forecast is however limited to 2010.

After rising 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2009, GDP stagnated in the first three months of 2010 (+0.1%), fearing a relapse of the economy even if this figure is likely to be revised upwards on Friday when the national accounts are published in detail.

Entitled "In mid-stream, Note Insee business survey suggests a continuation of the recovery but at a moderate pace and with high uncertainty.

Turbulent waters

"An upturn in global activity was engaged for several quarters but there is still some way to go in this crisis and in waters which may be turbulent," said Sandrine Duchêne, head of the Business cycle, at a press conference.

Two forces are at work in France as in other advanced economies, "she said.On the one hand, the global recovery, but more beneficial to the country heavily exposed to foreign trade such as Germany or Japan, the other the need for fiscal consolidation that has already resulted in the listing Plan rigor.

"The year 2010 is a transition year between recovery and fiscal consolidation," said Sandrine Duchêne.

"In the very short term, the second quarter looks good but there is currently a cap on surveys which is expected a slowdown in activity by the end of the year."

According to INSEE, the attenuation of growth in the second half will not call into question both the positive contributions of the first quarter, namely the beginnings of a revival in business investment and re-creations of net jobs in the commercial sector.

"This trend will continue throughout the year but the pace of recovery will be slow and does not transmit only gradually income households," said Sandrine Duchêne.

In this context and with unemployment still high but stable, Insee sees household consumption stagnated in the second quarter as the first, before rising moderately (0.3%) in the next two quarters.

Demand for business will be limited but the depreciation of the euro will bring them a breath of fresh air by making their exports more competitive.

POSITIVE EFFECT OF THE EURO

In total, according to projections by INSEE, the recent decline of the euro should have a positive impact of 1.6 points on exports this year and 0.5 percentage points on growth that otherwise would therefore was only 0.9%.

Business investment in turn will benefit from improved market opportunities but will remain constrained by production capacity remains under-used, with a rate currently of 76% – ten points below the long-term average.

After eight consecutive quarters of decline, Insee sees the investment by non-financial leave of 0.6% in the second quarter, but he would decline a further 2.0% in total over 2010, following a drop of 7.9% in 2009.

Regarding employment, creation of the 24,000 net new market sectors in the first quarter – after seven quarters of destruction – would be followed by 8,000 others in the second, 4,000 and 15,000 in the third to the fourth, a total gain of 51,000 jobs this year 337,000 after destruction in 2009.

After six quarters of strong growth, the unemployment rate would remain stable for its 9.5% in France (9.9% in the counties overseas), to its highest level since late 1999.

Insee said its forecasts are surrounded by uncertainties. A resurgence of financial stress and / or the impact of measures to reduce the deficit might weigh on growth, since, unlike the depreciation of the euro, if continued, would allow countries Eurozone to benefit more from the dynamism of world trade.

The British oil giant BP has already spent 1,250 billion dollars trying to contain the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, "he said Monday, indicating also be collected Saturday a total of 10,500 barrels after the installation of a funnel flight.

Between 3 and 5 June, BP and 16,600 barrels of oil collected with this new device.

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The amount advanced by the group does not include $ 360 million promised for the construction of artificial islands to Louisiana, he said.

"The optimization (device) continues and we hope to improve the collection in the coming days, but it will be some days yet before we can evaluate the success of this attempt at containment," BP said in a statement.

BP also said it was too early to quantify the total costs of the oil spill caused by the explosion late April of the platform Deepwater Horizon, in which 11 employees were killed.

On June 5, 1947, in a speech at Harvard University, General George C. Marshall announced a program of development aid as the world had ever known. The reconstruction program in European history will keep the name of its author.Spread over four years, resulting in a total of $ 13 billion of loans or donations in cash or in kind: tractors, equipment … is the equivalent of $ 115 billion in 2008 to rebuild Europe at the end of the Second World War.

In other words, not much in terms of the 3600 billion in 2008 for public intervention in World War II and the 700 billion spent during the Vietnam War, calculates Dessertine Philip, director of the Institute of High Finance.

And trifle when compared to the Marshall Plan 700 billion plan Obama in 2008 and 2008 of $ 1.095 trillion (750 billion euros) of the system put in place the euro area and by the IMF to maintain stability currency.

The euro fell below $ 1.20 and the stock markets have plunged into the red on Friday, sealed by disappointing figures for U.S. employment and the fear of contagion from the euro area. Trained in turmoil, oil lost almost $ 3: Towards 1600 GMT Brent North Sea yielded 2.83 dollars to 72.58 dollars a barrel.

In closing, the London Stock Exchange closed down 1.63%, 2.86% Paris, Frankfurt 1.91%, 3.80% Madrid, Milan and Athens 3.79% 5.03 %. And the Dow Jones in New York lost 2.3% to 1630 GMT.

In the U.S., unemployment fell in May to 9.7%, but the net new jobs (431,000) were worse than the 500,000 expected. The markets also remained concerned about the economic slump in Europe, which has pushed the euro to below $ 1.20 for the first time since March 2006.Around 3:35 p.m. GMT, the dollar posted 1.1993.

Even before the publication of these figures, the traders have fled risky investments and sought refuge with values that are safer as the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc."After a few days away from the spotlight, the debt crisis in Europe is back on the front of the stage," noted and David Morrison, an analyst at GFT, citing the risks of contagion from the crisis in Europe outside the euro area to Hungary and Romania.

In Hungary, alarmist statements from officials of the ruling on the country's economic situation has undermined the financial credibility of a State which is to avoid bankruptcy, under infusion of 20 billion euros available by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union (EU) and European Central Bank (ECB) since autumn 2008.

But it seems that the euro has also suffered from About … Fillon.Asked at a press briefing with his Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper on slide in the single currency, Prime Minister launched it saw "good news in that the parity between the euro and the dollar."

Media outlets have economic Anglophone immediately heard "parity" ("parity" in English) in its narrow sense of perfect equality. They have deduced that the head of government called the equivalence of his wishes: 1 euro equals one dollar. An avalanche of "urgent" then falls among their clients.

As a result, operators of foreign exchange markets feel encouraged to sell the euro.Within minutes, the single currency reached its lowest level in four years, to below $ 1.20.

But the following remarks by François Fillon said that he wanted "parity" in its other sense, the dictionary defines as "exchange rate of one currency against another."

"For years, the President of the Republic, we complain that this parity between the euro and the dollar does not reflect the reality of our economies and hinders exports. I am not worried about the current parity between the euro and the dollar, "he saidFillon.

"There is no doubt that these ideas have been down the euro, even though they occurred" after two little incidents "in the markets, the rise of the Swiss franc against the euro and rumors exposure to a European bank to derivatives, according to David Deddouche, currency strategist at Societe Generale.

Realizing the mistake, Matignon responds quickly: the entourage of the Prime Minister informed the reporters that "by parity, he meant + + level of the euro against the dollar." But the damage is done. "This correction, no one has seen," said David Deddouche.

However, the decline of the euro is really good news: see the video, the comments of Beatrice Mathieu Prediction Center Expansion.