Archive for October, 2011

The recapitalization plan Barroso is "acceptable" for Baroin

Auto Date Friday, October 14th, 2011

According to the Minister of Economy, the European Commission proposal to increase the capital adequacy ratio of banks to 9% "can absorb a shock." Budget Minister Baroin regrets the refusal of PS on the constitutional question of the balance of finances

The proposal of the European Commission and its President Jose Manuel Barroso to recapitalize banks is "acceptable", said Friday the French Minister of Finance Baroin. "The position of the Commission Barroso and two days ago is acceptable. A level of 9% of equity" to be achieved by European banks "by the end of the first half of next year, it ' is, "he said on Europe 1 radio.

According to him, "9% in 2012, it can absorb shock." He reiterated that this concerned primarily banks that failed the stress tests at the beginning of summer and those who have passed narrowly.Banks should try to recapitalize "on the basis of their results" by distributing less dividends and less bonus, "warned Baroin, like the European Commission." They should not do so at the expense of economic activity, credit to individuals and business credit, "he said.

"If they can not, they will do in the markets, if markets are not enough they will find partners, and ultimately there will be a limited possibility of a European coordination" for public assistance, the minister added . He again suggested that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) provides that state aid to schools that need it, as its new statutes in force since Thursday so authorize.Germany believes he can do that for banks in countries which already have an international aid program (Greece, Portugal, Ireland).

Baroin But he reiterated that French banks do not find themselves in the position of having to seek government assistance. On Greece, the Minister confirmed the new position of France, which was resolved Thursday to recognize that the creditor banks would have to erase the country a majority of government debt. The discount provided to date to the private creditors of Athens, in the agreement of July 21, is 21%. "For three months the markets have evolved, they have deteriorated (…) We left at 21% July 21, it will be, it is almost certain," he said. "How high? Is being discussed."

He also felt that the figures circulating going "well beyond 50%" were "fanciful"."Three quarters of the Greek debt is held by private (…) We will not cut the whole," he said. "If it requires a private discount that is not tenable, then that will invest in Greece?" Asked Baroin.

He then said that the Heads of State and Government of the euro zone announce their decision on this issue at the summit in Brussels on 23 October, without specifying whether they would disclose the amount of the new haircut or just the principle. { P}

The EU prepares its banks to a Greek default

Auto Date Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

European authorities began Wednesday to prepare the banks of the continent to a possible failure of Greece.

For the first time since the crisis began, bank supervisors have decided to enhance their market sovereign debt held by banks in the EU as part of the recapitalization process in progress, officials said Wednesday European source.

The EBA, which will retain a definition of bank capital similar to that used in the last series of stress tests in July, will harden further 9% threshold due to equity "hard", reflecting the wishes of Paris and Berlin and by the European Commission on Wednesday in his "roadmap" to end the crisis.

"This is an exercise prudential.It is therefore logical that the ABE values ​​sovereign debt to market value or a value very close to that market, "said a source familiar with the discussions.

Regarding the definition of capital, "it corresponds to that used by the BEA in July.This is harder than the current one but is softer than that provided by the new Basel III standards, "the source said.

Once it receives the data that are currently provided by the banks, the EBA will prepare a proposed recapitalization of institutions of systemic Twenty-September for the meeting of EU finance ministers to be held October 21 , the day before the EU summit.

ROADMAP

This will be adopted simultaneously with the new bailout of Greece, which must reduce the debt of Athens so much greater than had been planned in July and then revise upward contribution "voluntary "the private sector.

According to several European sources, the losses that private investors must accept their obligations in the Greek part of the new plan should be between 30 and 50%, not 21% as expected.

Institute for International Finance (IIF), the discount would represent 39% when using the current market prices to assess the risk profile of the country

The roadmap of the Commission also calls on members of the euro area to complete without delay the ratification of the new European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).

Last country to have to run, Slovakia will vote by Friday, officials said Wednesday following the agreement between three parties of the government resigned and the main opposition party.

The roadmap, which calls in line with discussions held at the EBA to a building "significant" capital requirements of banks, also advocates a recapitalization through private funds, which will be supplemented by funds public and by loans from the EFSF in case of negative response from the market.

France, who insisted behind the scenes for several days to use the EFSF as an instrument of coordination in the recapitalization of banks, said Wednesday it would not appeal.

"EURO BONDS"

The other two parts of the document from the Commission concerning the acceleration of measures currently being discussed in Brussels, but designed to boost European growth and most importantly, the implementation faster than expected European Stability Mechanism (MES).

The MES, which was to come into force on 1 July 2013, finally begin to operate on 1 July 2012 according to the wishes of the Commission. It includes a device that allows a country to default on its debt in an orderly manner.

"The roadmap traces the path to the exit of the economic crisis for Europe. The partial answers to the various aspects of the crisis are no longer sufficient.We need to take the lead, "said Commission President José Manuel Barroso to the European Parliament.

"We must reach an agreement at the EU summit of 23 October," he said, also urging the leaders of the euro area to release the next tranche of aid to Greece.

He also confirmed that the EU executive would present by the end of the year a proposal to create a framework for joint programming of debt between members of the euro area, also known as "Euro bonds."

German banks against a generalized recapitalization

Auto Date Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Europe should recapitalize its banks on an individual basis and not applied uniformly to all measures in the industry, said Tuesday the German BDB banking association.

"It would be absurd to book the same treatment to all banks," said Michael Kemmer, CEO of the BDB, in an interview on ARD television channel.

If the recapitalization is needed, they must be implemented in the right tempo, he added.

"First, banks themselves must make use of capital markets, although it is very difficult if not impossible, right now," said Michael Kemmer.

"Then, each country must see if we recapitalize banks and only if it is unable to do that EFSF should intervene," he added, referring to the European Stability Financial.

France and Germany have given themselves until the end of October to overcome many obstacles on the recapitalization of banks, the euro and its sickest member, Greece, and on European Governance, at where the sovereign debt crisis has put down the bank Dexia.

German banks, which have increased their level of capital in recent months, are stable and doing well, said Michael Kemmer.

He added that European leaders should stick to the agreement July 21 on Greece, which provides that private creditors pass a discount of 21% on Greek bond holdings.

Many experts believe that this level of discount ("haircut") is insufficient, forcing banks to take further writedowns in the third quarter.

Deutsche Bank, one of the most important members of the BDB with Commerzbank, said late September that the discount that private investors have agreed to take on Greek sovereign debt in the second bailout of Greece could be greater than 21% retained.

Last week, the German IDW auditors are said German banks could follow the example of Deutsche Bank in the third quarter by re-evaluating their market prices Greek bonds.

The business results come into play on Wall Street

Auto Date Sunday, October 9th, 2011

Investors weary of the impact of the crisis in the euro area financial markets will have something else to put in their mouths this week: the results of business.

As each "earnings season" quarterly, the aluminum producer Alcoa, which will open the ball, his numbers are expected in the third quarter after the close of Wall Street Tuesday.

Business performance and prospects announcing they are considered an important barometer of the state of the global economy and are also likely to give an indication of the impact of the crisis in the euro area on profits companies.

But, having risen sharply over the whole of last week, Wall Street may have difficulty continuing to rise even if corporate earnings are better than expected.

Technical analysts have said in effect that the moving average of 50 days S & P 500, currently at 1178 points, could represent a significant resistance.

In the past week, the S & P benchmark for fund managers, has gained 2.1% to 1155.46 points, buoyed by the feeling that European leaders are now determined to solve the problems of their banks weakened by the debt crisis.

Nicolas Sarkozy traveled to Berlin on Sunday for talks with Angela Merkel of crisis, with a priority to overcome their differences on how to recapitalize European banks.

"Over the next three weeks, attention will focus on results – even if the situation in Europe will always be present in people's minds," said Ken Polcari, an analyst at ICAP Equities.

In addition to Alcoa, next week will also see the results of PepsiCo, Google, JPMorgan Chase and Mattel.

CONSERVATIVE ANALYST ESTIMATES

In light of the debt crisis of the area, but also signs announcing a slowdown in the global economy, many corporate earnings forecasts were revised downward by analysts in recent months .

"The forecast for the quarter just ended were very conservative so there are chances that companies do at least as well as the consensus," said Marc Pado, technical analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, market players expect including the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, retail sales for the month of September and the feeling of households for the month of October, according to Index Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan.

The latest U.S. statistics have been rather better than expected, which has banished the specter of a return to recession in the United States and contributed to the rebound on Wall Street last week.

But, and this also applies to any positive impression left by the business results, although some indicators of the coming week confirm this trend, the positive effect could be negated if further deterioration of the debt crisis the euro area.

Auto Date Friday, October 7th, 2011

Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the chairman of Nestlé, is sounding the alarm over soaring food prices. It could mean new revolts in poor countries. An Indonesian dried corn grows, without benefit of the inflation of commodity prices. Indonesia is now the largest importer of maize. REUTERS / Sigit Pamungkas (INDONESIA – Tags: BUSINESS FOOD) AGRICULTURE)

The food prices are expected to remain high, which could lead to new hunger riots in developing countries, said President of the Swiss group Nestle in an interview published Friday.

"We have reached a level of food prices substantially higher than we had before. They are expected to stabilize at this level," said Peter Brabeck-Letmathe in this interview with the daily Salzburger Nachrichten.

"When you live in a developing country and we spend 80% of its income on food, we feel bound to it differently from us," where such expenses are around 8%, he argued.

For him, new hunger riots like those that had rocked Africa, Haiti or Indonesia in 2008 are likely to recur. "The situation is similar, it has become the new reality," he said.

Soaring food prices this year is considered one of the reasons that contributed to the "Arab Spring" in North Africa and the Middle East.

The price increase is attributed both to speculation, climate change, increasing population, or to changes in dietary habits in some emerging countries like India, where the middle classes have significantly increased their consumption meat.

For M.Brabeck-Letmathe, the issue of water is also crucial. "We already consume today" too much water, he said, encouraging businesses and consumers to waste less.

The Italian Acea EDF will continue to court about Edipower

Auto Date Wednesday, October 5th, 2011

Italian energy company Acea said Wednesday its intention to take legal action against EDF regarding the acquisition by the French in 2005, through its affiliate Edison, a majority stake in Edipower.

Acea believes that EDF has acquired illegally participation in conjunction with Aem Milano, now part of the company A2A.

The price of old housing decreases in France

Auto Date Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

For the first time since 2008, the price and the number of transactions in the old housing declined in France in 2011. Only Paris continues to grow. http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/

For the first time since late 2008, the start of the economic crisis, the number of transactions and house prices falling in France, a trend likely to continue in 2012, according to a survey by the AFP with leading real estate networks. "Sales of existing homes fell 11% in France between the 3rd quarters of 2010 and 2011, while prices fell by 2.7% between the first half and third quarter of 2011," said Laurent Vimont, Chair Century 21, a leading network of estate agents.

Paris alone, due to demand still much stronger than supply, see the prices continue to increase, reaching a new record in Q3 8556 eurs/m2, says Vimont.After a price hike of 22.5% in the second quarter, the highest one-year for 20 years, house prices in the capital will soon level off or even declined slightly, had said in early September notaries in Paris. In the provinces, seven provinces reported, according to Century 21, a fall in prices in Q3: Burgundy (-9.7%), Central (-5.5%), Lorraine (-4.4%), Provence-Alpes Côte d'Azur (-3.7%), Basse-Normandie (-3%), Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (-3.4%), Champagne-Ardenne (-1.3%).

For Mr. Vimont, the main explanation lies in the fact that "over the solvency of first-time buyers who can not afford to buy, is broken." This decrease since mid-2011 transactions and prices is confirmed by the Real Estate Guy Hiccups."Higher mortgage rates and the presidential election should result in lower overall market in 2012," said its managing director Cédric Monssu. For Nicolas Jacquet, Executive Chairman of Urbania, the next increase in the tax on capital gains on sales of rental and second homes on 1 February 2012, resulted in "significant increase in the number of terms in Sales agencies ".

But in 2012, one can "expect for 2 or 3 years down the number of transactions as a number of people who have not reached withdraw their homes from the sale," he adds . "This announcement will have a devastating effect especially that the liquidity problems of banks should lead to a restriction in the distribution of mortgages," said Bernard Cadeau, president of the Orpi network.But this rush to sell for some households that had exceeded the limit of 15 years for tax exemption on capital gains has unintended consequences. "We remind sellers that we are bound by an obligation of means, not results, and we urge our customers to agree to sign a form stating that we are not liable for administrative delays," said Gilles Ricour Bourges, President for Ile-de-France of Fnaim (National Federation of the estate).

However, one sector is rubbing his hands at the moment: the luxury real estate. "We record a 20% increase in the number of terms because it is necessary that the promise of sale are signed before November 15 to make sure that the final acts to be registered with the notaries before February 1", told AFP Charles-Marie Jottras, Chairman Daniel Féau real estate."Non-standard goods have been no slowdown in demand, on the contrary. The category of quality goods, worth over EUR 1 million, did not suffer either in the capital and stations, sea or mountain fashion, "says Barnes network in a statement.

Greece confirms that it will exceed the deficit targets

Auto Date Sunday, October 2nd, 2011

Greece missed the deficit targets that were assigned by its international donors for this year and next, according to figures released Sunday by the Greek Ministry of Finance after approval by the Government of the draft budget 2012.

Athens expects the deficit to reach 8.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, while the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had requested that the deficit does not exceed 7 , 6% of GDP.The draft budget projects the deficit will be reduced to 6.8% in 2012, against a target of 6.5%.

"There is money three months before the end of 2011 and the final estimate of a deficit to 8.5% of GDP can be achieved if the state apparatus and the citizens act accordingly," the Ministry in a statement.

"The draft budget will be submitted tomorrow (Monday) in parliament," he says.