Archive for October, 2011

Auto Date Monday, October 31st, 2011

Wall Street finished sharply lower Monday, the initial enthusiasm born of the EU summit last week's fading from investors who question now no longer on how to resolve the debt crisis in the euro area but their use.

Still Wall Street has done its best month since 1991 and many analysts believe that the worst case scenario is ruled out at this time in Europe, the stock market is ripe for a further rise, investors are turning their attention to Chinese statistics and the U.S. better than expected.

The values ​​of natural resources have suffered from the fact that the dollar reached a peak three months against the yen as a result of intervention by the Bank of Japan to roll back the domestic currency.The Nasdaq Composite yield 52.74 points (1.93%) to 2684.41.

Of the month, the Dow shows a gain of 9.5%, the S & P by 10.8% and the Nasdaq 11.1%.

The new concerns generated by the European debt situation are what feed the bankrupt broker MF Global Holdings derivatives, an event that affected financial stocks in particular.

The latter, who had engaged in heavy positions on European sovereign debt, filed for bankruptcy after the breakdown of negotiations to sell assets to Interactive Brokers Group.

MF Global transactions have been suspended. Interactive Brokers has closed up 1.05%.

Values, the S & P Natural Resources lost 4.2%.

Auto Date Saturday, October 29th, 2011

The French left the presidency of the European Central Bank on October 31. It gives way to the Italian Mario Draghi. Record of eight years of a presidency marked by the seal of the crisis. The mandate of Jean-Claude Trichet President of the ECB ended October 31, 2011

The least we can say is that the end of term Jean-Claude Trichet has not been easy. The French left the European Central Bank (ECB), after eight years of presidency, when the euro area is experiencing a critical step – critical? – Of its crisis. For if the Europe Agreement birth Thursday morning in pain is an important step in the short term, it does not eliminate all long-term risks of contagion from the debt crisis.

We do not worship nor hate Jean-Claude Trichet, as it is more consensual than cleaving – it boasts of never having been outvoted by the Governing Council of the ECB. We respect him.For he succeeded in making the institution of Frankfurt an economic and political front. The markets were suspended in any of his words at monthly conferences of the ECB on interest rates. And since Europe is in crisis, he took part in EU summits as well as leaders and heads of government of member states of Euroland.

The route of Jean-Claude Trichet

1942: Born in Lyon

1969-1971: ENA

1978-1981: Economic Advisor, Valerie Giscard d'Estaing

1986-1987: Director of the Office of Edouard Balladur, Minister of Finance

1987-1993: Director of Treasury

1993-2003: Governor of the Banque de France

2003-2011: President of the European Central Bank

Of the review of eight years as president of the ECB, it can be fierce independence vis-à-vis the Franco-German policies.No sooner did he take the levers of the ECB in November 2003, accusing Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder to gut the Stability Pact. In 2010, he opposed the will of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel to involve private investors in the rescue of Greece. But we remember also its renewed calls for member states to implement a real economic governance of the euro area. Not to mention his extraordinary responsiveness during the financial crisis in August 2007 first, then in October 2008, noting that the interbank market is frozen, the ECB is the first to lend banks as much liquidity as they wish.

The strong euro, the result of the fight against inflation

Two of his actions, however, are highly controversial.

BASF confirms outlook for 2011

Auto Date Thursday, October 27th, 2011

BASF, the world leader in chemistry in terms of sales, announced Thursday a quarterly profit above expectations, but warned that its growth was slowing, clients sell their stocks.

"BASF's customers are more cautious, reduce inventory and postpone some of their orders in hopes of a possible drop in prices," explains the German group said in a statement.

Operating profit (EBIT) fell 11.3% to 1.96 billion euros, while analysts polled by Reuters anticipate an average of 1.89 billion euros.

The quarterly revenue was up 11.6% to 17.6 billion euros, according to consensus.

BASF has confirmed that the CAand EBIT adjusted for taxes on oil would experience a significant increase this year.

"However, growth slowed further over the first half of 2011. We expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter," warns the group.

Banks must accept sacrifices, said Jouyet

Auto Date Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Europe is moving towards an agreement on the sovereign debt crisis but "banks must now accept the necessary sacrifices," said Jean-Pierre Jouyet, the president of the Financial Markets Authority, in an interview published Tuesday by The Tribune.

"A lot of the success of the second meeting of the Eurozone is in their hands," he adds.

Finance ministers from the euro area opened Friday six days of intense negotiations, punctuated by an EU summit Sunday to a high of the euro area, where the outcome expected Wednesday is considered crucial for the future of the single currency.

For reassurance on the risks of contagion, "the markets want a political Europe even stronger. A battle will hopefully gained Wednesday, but not the war.It will be played on fiscal consolidation and real political integration, "the president of the AMF.

He said Germany is now "the business model and budget the most efficient in Europe."

Jean-Pierre Jouyet also known as the European Commissioner for Internal Market Michel Barnier to go further in reforming financial markets.

"Today there is an excess of power of financial markets on policy choices. It is time to regain control in the regulation of markets," said he.

The budget deficit for 2012 down to 80.3 billion euros

Auto Date Monday, October 24th, 2011

French deputies have reduced by nearly 1, 5 billion to 80.321 billion, the deficit in the draft budget law for 2012 at the conclusion of the review, Monday, the first part, the revenue .

The deficit in the original was 81.772 billion euros.

MEPs will vote on Tuesday by a solemn vote of the whole of this first part of the finance bill that the Senate will consider in turn from 17 November.

The level of the deficit is likely to change again with the review by members of the review of the second part of the budget, the expenditure, then the entire text by Senators.

The challenges of a European summit high voltage

Auto Date Saturday, October 22nd, 2011

European stock markets closed sharply higher Friday driven by hopes for concrete decisions for the euro area. Update on four major issues of the summit on Sunday. The European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel in Brussels.

European stock markets have taken the bull by the horns Friday night, driven by renewed optimism for two days of the EU summit must respond to the crisis in the euro area. Paris ended up 2.8%, Frankfurt 3.5%, London 1.9%, 2.8% and Madrid. The eyes are now fixed on Brussels, which is expected to announce concrete steps Sunday to save Greece, prevent contagion of the crisis in fragile countries in the euro area, and reassure the markets.Update on four major issues in this summit.

The loan to Greece is he paid?

Greece has a positive decision of the creditors (IMF, EU, ECB) after passing the test on Wednesday and Thursday of the street. Parliament passed a new law Thursday austerity which provides further wage cuts and layoffs in the setting of 30,000 employees. But if the payment of this sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion seems to be accepted by Brussels, the IMF's involvement is less. The institution is actually more pessimistic than Europe on the development of public finances of the country.

What level of discount for Greece?

The discussions relate "50%" according to a European source. This level imposed on the country's private creditors would erase 67.5 billion euros of Greek debt that will culminate later this year to 357 billion euros (about 162% of GDP).That's a lot more than what was agreed at the Summit of 21 July, the discount was set at the time to 21% of the commitment of private creditors. If this hypothesis is confirmed, this discount will remove 20% of the debt. The Union of Greek Industrialists (SEV) held Friday consequences "dramatic" if this level should be imposed on private creditors. But this statement should not weigh very heavy in view of the issues … However, the whole question is about the ability of Europe to offer a discount to private creditors 'voluntary' of their claims. For without this principle, the credit event could be delivered, which would open the door to bankruptcy of the country.

How much money to recapitalize the banks?

To allow banks to withstand losses on the country's debt, the EU will reassess the capital ratios of European banks to the tune of 9%.For this, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has assessed the need for recapitalization of banks from 80 to 100 billion euros. The question is whether this amount will be enough to reassure the markets knowing that the IMF rather evoked a level of capitalization to 200 billion euros. In all cases, the major European banks were against a forced recapitalization. And warned that, given the difficulties to obtain financing, this would lead them to reduce the size of their balance sheets. In other words, to reduce their lending activity.

How to strengthen the EFSF?

This is where things get complicated. For Paris and Berlin have not yet found agreement on the issue. For France, it would give the banking license to the European Financial Stability (EFSF) to enable it to refinance with the European Central Bank (ECB).Leverage and the ability to fund intervention limited to 440 billion euros that can lift the markets. Paris also wants the ECB to continue to buy bonds fragile as it has done for over a year. But Berlin and the ECB refuses, and instead want to change the Fund's insurer. It would ensure any losses would have to suffer the investors in the bonds of fragile states up to 20 to 30% in case of difficulty in these states to honor their commitments. This idea has received support Friday from 10 major European banks and insurers. But here, in addition to France, Spain and Italy do not agree. Rome and Madrid, this will create a rate difference between bonds and debentures. "No one in a financial crisis, venture to purchase securities that need a crutch," said EU official.This is mainly because of these disagreements has been decided a second peak of the euro area, next Wednesday.

Schneider lowers its 2011 margin target

Auto Date Thursday, October 20th, 2011

Schneider said Thursday lowered its forecast for 2011 operating margin mainly because of a mix more negative than expected in terms of activity and contribution of geographic areas.

The French specialist of electrical equipment said in a statement that it now expects an EBIT margin (earnings before acquisition costs and impact of integration and consolidation of acquisitions in the year 2011) of 14% instead 15% previously forecast.

However, the Group confirms its forecast for organic growth of between 6% and 9% for the year.

"We expect, however, that profitability is impacted beyond the forecast, the combined effect of a mix more negative, due to growth of solutions greater than that of products and geographic mix less favorable, and a stronger inflationary pressures in emerging economies, "said Jean-Pascal Tricoire, chief executive, said in the statement.

The turnover of the group reached 5.697 million euros in the third quarter, representing organic growth of 7.7%.

At 9 months, organic growth reached 9.3%, faster than the annual target.

The activity "Power" (38% of sales in Q3) recorded organic growth of 7.6%, "Energy" (21% of sales) increased by 7.3%, "Industry" (19% of sales ) 6.6%, "IT" (15% of sales) of 12.6% and the activity "Buildings" (7% of sales) 3.0%.

The activity remained stable in Western Europe, the main market of the group (31% of sales), while Asia organic growth of 15% and North America 9%.

Emerging markets, which posted growth of 14%, now represent over 40% of the total turnover of Schneider.

Sarkozy and Merkel are working on the future of the euro area

Auto Date Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

Nicolas Sarkozy left Paris Wednesday to Frankfurt where he is involved with the German Chancellor to work meeting for the summit of the euro area expected Sunday. President Nicolas Sarkozy meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel Tuesday, August 16 at the Elysee Palace (both here in Berlin July 20, 2011)

Nicolas Sarkozy left Paris Wednesday to Frankfurt where he is involved with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a meeting to advance the conclusion of an agreement on the future of the euro area before the EU summit scheduled for Sunday, announced the Elysee.The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet, his successor Mario Draghi, the Presidents Council and the Commission of the European Union (EU), Herman Van Rompuy and José Manuel Barroso, the Executive Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde, the finance ministers and French and German, Baroin and Wolfgang Schäuble, also participate in this "informal meeting" added the source.

All these personalities gathered in Frankfurt for a ceremony in honor of Mr. Trichet, who must leave office at the head of the ECB at the end of October. "No statement is expected at the end of this working meeting," also said the French presidency.At a luncheon at the Elysee Palace with the centrist deputies, the president announced he was ready to move quickly in Germany in order to hasten the conclusion of an agreement in anticipation of EU summits and the euro area scheduled Sunday.

France hopes that the EFSF can be turned into a real bank, such that it can refinance directly with the ECB. The ECB and Germany are opposed to such provisions, which require amendment of the European treaties.Germany stands in contrast the idea of ​​a mechanism to ensure EFSF some of the bonds of troubled countries, to multiply by "leverage" its lending capacity, currently $ 440 billion euros, without the states have to increase their contributions.

First limited to Greece, the debt crisis is now spreading to other countries in the euro area and its banks. Spain has suffered a further reduction of its sovereign rating for the third time in less than two weeks, while Greece was paralyzed by a general strike. At a meeting with Merkel in Berlin on October 9, Sarkozy had promised "sustainable solutions, comprehensive and fast" to resolve the serious crisis in the euro area, in any case before the G20 summit scheduled in Cannes on November 3 and 4.

Why the movement does not outraged France

Auto Date Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

The global gathering of outraged this weekend has not gathered the crowds in France. The political context partly explains this failure. The "outraged" Place de la Bastille, May 10, 2011.

The numbers speak for themselves: 50,000 outraged gathered this weekend in Lisbon, 6000 in Frankfurt, 5000 in New York and … no more than a thousand in Paris. The movement which started on the Puerta del Sol square in Madrid to extend to many countries never really took off in the hexagon.But why mobilization is struggling to develop in France, whereas it is a French, Stéphane Hessel, who inspired the movement with his book "Unworthy you"? Several answers.

France is less badly off than its neighbors

"Here we do not have a gun to his head like the Greeks may have with their crisis and the Spanish with their real estate market," said Julien Bayou, co-founder of the collective generation and precarious present in the meetings of the "outraged" French held each week. He said the crisis is felt in France, but not the same as in some countries. It is also the opinion of Robi Morder, Chairman of the studies and research on student movements (germ). "Many young people, especially graduates can expect to enter the world of work without going through the uncertainty," said he in the daily La Croix."It is more complicated in southern Europe, where unemployment is higher among graduates than non-graduates," says researcher Monique Dagnaud to Liberation. The rate of youth unemployment to 45% in Spain when he was 23% in France.

Unfavorable political context

The arrival of the next presidential captures media attention for weeks, and the recent Socialist primary did not help. This reduces the echo can have the movement in France. In addition, it is optimistic about the possible alternatives that demobilizing troops, said Julien Bayou. "In Spain, Greece or even the United States, we have leaders that could be called the left in power. And we know that at the polls, the alternation will not work. So it is mobilized in the streets" , said he."While in France we have a right to be making a right-wing politics, and people in the head the next election." It is against this background that would explain the very high participation in the Socialist primary according to Julien Bayou. "We have seen other profiles went to move to vote in the second round of elections, especially young people," he adds.

The refusal of the "recovery"

In France, social movements are generally handled by the unions and some political parties. But the outraged French refused this form of "recovery", preferring a spontaneous movement. They realized soon and should change their modes of action. "It is true that initially we were quite aggressive vis-à-vis the associations and parties," recognized Delia Fernandez, the collective indignation, of Liberation."This has slowed the mobilization and preventing challenges to reach the street. For their part, they did not understand that we act in a pattern different from theirs. We will now try to cut corners."

The movement is ever convicted?

Not yet. The recent history of France showed that some mobilizations, it took several weeks before the mayonnaise takes. "For us, the mobilizations take time, it took two months for the movement against the First Job Contract off", said Robi Morder. To this researcher, do not bury a mobilization that may, one day to another, take a lot more important. "Be careful because there are embers, it would spark an escalation of the crisis or a big scandal for example, it really starts," said he.

G20 keeps the pressure on the euro area

Auto Date Saturday, October 15th, 2011

The members of the G20 meeting in Paris should acknowledge the commitment of Europeans Saturday to introduce in the next few days a package of measures to restore stability in the euro area, amid fears over the health of the global economy.

France and Germany have promised to present at the European Summit of 23 October a plan to recapitalize banks, responding to the situation worse than expected in Greece, increasing the firepower of the European financial stability and reforming the governance of the euro area.

"We will over the coming days to continue our discussions but we already have on contractual agreements that will be very important," said French Finance Minister, Baroin, after a meeting Friday with his German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Meanwhile, European leaders are putting added pressure on banks to force them to recapitalize and enable them to withstand greater losses than expected on the sovereign debt of the most fragile area.

The European plan will be included in a series of commitments that will be announced at the summit of Heads of State and Government of the G20 3 and 4 November in Cannes, which will close the French presidency of the Forum of 20 major economies.

Many measures discussed by finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 meeting in Paris on Friday and Saturday were referred to this deadline.

SUMMIT OF CANNES

In Paris, important steps were expected Saturday on the reduction of major global financial and economic imbalances, a priority for the French Presidency, with the objective that the seven countries identified as major sources of the imbalances present in Cannes "two or three significant steps "in this sense.

"We need fiscal consolidation measures for countries in excessive deficit and measures to support global activity for those who have surplus," explained a French source before the meeting.

According to an official of the G20 countries, the Chinese have thus expressed their readiness to "ensure that growth in China does not slow down, even if there is a risk of inflation through expansionary fiscal policy."

No major breakthrough is expected, however in Paris on the Chinese currency, the yuan, which the strict control by Beijing is considered one of the major causes of global imbalances.

The "path integration" of the yuan in the currency basket of Special Drawing Rights International Monetary Fund, a discussion underpinned by the loosening of the Chinese currency, is among the priorities of Cannes, with the objective of A schedule.

BANK CASH

The draft G20 communique obtained by Reuters Finance reaffirms that its members will ensure that banks have sufficient liquidity, in particular through central banks, as they undertook to do at the recent G7 Finance in Marseille.

The debate on the proposed increase of IMF resources, defended by almost all emerging G20 but faces opposition from the United States and Japan, will also resume in Cannes.

Discussions were still Saturday on whether to publish the list of banks considered to be running in size a systemic risk the global financial system, where the G20 should agree on capital surcharges.Again, final decisions will be taken in Cannes.

"Principles" for emerging economies suffering from speculative capital movements must also be finalized for the upcoming summit of the G20, to help control these flows in order to avoid destabilization of the economy.