Archive for June, 2011

0.8% decline in consumer spending in May

Auto Date Thursday, June 30th, 2011

Household consumption of goods decreased by 0.8% in May, its third consecutive month of decline, after a revised 1.4% decline in April, show statistics released Thursday by INSEE.

Eighteen economists surveyed by Reuters on average expected a 0.9% increase in consumption after the 1.8% decline initially announced in April.Their estimates ranged from -1.0% to 1.6%.

Spending on durable goods, which dropped by 6.4% in April, fell 0.6% more last month, due to a less pronounced decline in purchases of motor vehicles (-1.8% after – 10.3%).

Purchases of textiles and leather, they have decreased by 4.4% in May after rising 1.6% in April.

Consumer spending in other manufactured goods were down 1.3% in May after rising 0.3% in April.

As for food purchases, they stand down 1.7% from 1.4% the previous month.

At the same time the energy consumption rebounded in May (3.4% after -3.4%)."After a particularly mild weather in April, limited heating costs, household consumption and found a normal level in May," INSEE said in a statement.

Stop to the decline in unemployment

Auto Date Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

The number of unemployed went back up in May, 0.7%, according to statistics from job center.

The decline in unemployment in France was halted in May, showed statistics released Tuesday by the Ministry of Labour and job center.

The number of job applicants in category A (those who carry on any business during the month) in France rose by 17,700 (+0.7%) last month to $ 2,686,800.

This is the first increase since the beginning of the year. In one year, the number of unemployed in category rose by 0.3%.

By adding the persons engaged in small (B and C), the increase in the number of unemployed reached 1.0%, 39,400 more people in one month, reaching 4,078,500. On an annual basis, this figure represents an increase of 3.8%.

No agreement in Rome on the French project for Greece

Auto Date Monday, June 27th, 2011

Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed on Monday the outline of a French plan foresees the participation of European banks and insurance companies to resolve the crisis in Greece, which has not yet been approved by the partners of France.

A meeting on modalities for private sector participation to a new rescue plan for Greece was held Monday morning in Rome between representatives of the banking lobby Institute of International Finance (IIF) and the Economic and Financial Committee of the euro area without reaching agreement.

French President confirmed that private creditors would exchange their debt against the Greek 30-year bonds at rates equivalent to those of European support loans, issued at a premium indexed to economic growth in Greece.

He hoped that the European partners of France accepted the plan but was willing to change to get their agreement.

"We have concluded that spreading the loan over a period of 30 years, putting them in European loans, plus a premium indexation on what will be the growth of Greece, there was a system that each country could probably find interesting, "he said at a news conference.

"So the project that we have, we put it in the debate as something we hope positive, we are ready to amend it, too, the French project is not the alpha and omega", has he said.

The leaders of the euro area are seeking how to involve the private sector in a second aid package to Greece without this lead rating agencies to estimate that the country is in default.

The European Union and the International Monetary Fund warned that they would pay the fifth installment of a $ 12 billion, the plan developed in 2010 to help save Greece from bankruptcy, if latter did not take further austerity measures by July 3.

The Greek Parliament began debating Monday of these measures and must decide Wednesday on the overall framework of the austerity plan and Thursday on specific steps to its implementation.

"HAIR CUT Mask"

In anticipation of a possible European agreement on the participation of the private sector, the scheme outlined by the Treasury and the French financial institutions provides that private creditors are willing to reinvest 70% of the Greek repayment of loans maturing in new obligations.

Half of the securities held by private creditors would be reinvested in Greek bonds to 30 years.

Some 20% would be reinvested in securities backed by the European Financial Stability Fund (FSEF), created in 2010 to assist countries in the Eurozone in trouble (Greece, Ireland, Portugal).

"From what has filtered at this stage, it would be a 'hair cut' hidden on 50% of the amounts held by private banks," said one credit strategist a French bank.

For the rest, 20% would be reinvested in securities issued by the EFSF, which in turn lend the funds to Greece, he adds, this part of the "rollover" benefiting from "AAA" rating of EFSF and therefore a security.

Gilles Moec, an economist at Deutsche Bank, sees two possible logic behind the proposal provides that 20% refund will be deposited into a "guarantee fund" that would invest in the EFSF and MSE (European Stability Mechanism).

"The EFSF / MSE would act as an intermediary 'between investors and Greece by granting it loans backing the bonds purchased in the' rollover '," he said, adding, as the strategist, it protects Creditors of a default risk.

The economist added that in the latter case, the "guarantee fund" could play firefighters in case of default on the new 30-year Greek bonds and cover any "hair cut" 40% of these securities.

"However, in this second case, the final risk continue to be carried by the private sector," he wrote in a note.

"As it stands, the French plan does not lead to" an ordered default "of Greece. In fact, 20% of repayments in 2012/2013 to cover approximately 20 billion euros, while the total government debt amounted to 328 billion euros at the end of last year, "said Gilles Moec.

Alcoa signs a $ 1 billion with Airbus

Auto Date Friday, June 24th, 2011

The Alcoa aluminum companies announced a multiyear contract Friday to around one billion dollars (700 million) by which it will supply the metal to Airbus. EADS

Alcoa will supply the aircraft manufacturer plates and plate alloys from current and advanced, stronger and lighter than conventional metals and composites.

The agreement was reached at the Paris Air Show.

The Alcoa aluminum will be used on most airliners Airbus single-aisle A380 jetliner to.

The action Alcoa earns 1.24% to 15.47 dollars on Wall Street in early trade.

Up 1.3% of Irish GDP in Q1

Auto Date Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Ireland increased by 1.3% in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, according to official figures released on Thursday, well above expectations of analysts who had forecast 0.8%.

However the gross national product (GNP), considered by some economists as a more accurate indicator of the state of the Irish economy, fell by 4.3% over the same period, while a stagnation was expected.

According to the Central Statistics Office, GDP rose 0.1% year on year between January and March, while GNP decreased by 0.9%.

The figures in the fourth quarter of 2010 were significantly revised, with a decline of 1.4% a quarter over quarter for GDP, against 1.6% previously, and an increase of 0.3% GNP (2.0% initially).

For the full year 2010, the Irish economy has experienced a contraction of 0.4% against 1.0% previously announced.

Of France raised its forecast debt 2011-2014

Auto Date Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

Of France raised its forecast for public debt for the years 2011 to 2014 and confirms that the debt ratio will decline in 2013 and beyond, in a report released Tuesday by the Budget Ministry.

This report pre-policy debate of public finances, the Government confirms its path to reduce the public deficit to 5.7% of GDP end of 2011, 4.6% at end 2012, 3.0% in late 2013 and 2 , 0% in late 2014.

In 2010, the deficit stood at 7.1% after the revision of GDP on a level place in May 2005 by INSEE.

The government plans 30,401 job cuts in the public next year, including 14,000 in Education and about 7,500 in the defense, the continuation of the non-replacement of retiring in two.

"In 2012, the number of civil servants should return to its 1990 levels, or 150,000 less over the term of five years (2007-2012), equivalent to a reduction of 7% of the Public Service the state, "reads the document.

Government debt was 85.4% of GDP end of 2011, 86.9% at end 2012, 86.4% and 84.8% end 2013 end 2014.

The Government previously provided a ratio of 84.6% at end 2011, 86.0% in 2012, 85.6% in 2013 and 84.1% in 2014.

The Government confirms second predict economic growth of 2.0% this year and 2.25% in 2012.

It expects a 2.4% increase in household consumption in 2012 after 1.7% in 2011, a non-financial business investment up 6.7% after 4.7%, exports up 6 , 0% after 7.6% and imports up 5.9% from 7.5% in 2011.

Inflation eases slightly to 1.75% in 2012 from 1.8% this year.

Greece does escape into bankruptcy this summer?

Auto Date Monday, June 20th, 2011

Europeans demand a new vote that Athens austerity plan before you pay the money to repay its creditors. Otherwise, Greece will default on its debt. With a risk of chain reactions throughout the euro area. Thousands of "outrage" expressed Sunday, June 19 against the austerity of Syntagma Square in Athens.

Pressed to act quickly Friday by Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, the finance ministers of the euro zone agreed Sunday night to complete the fifth installment of the loan of 110 billion made a year ago. The payment of this installment of 12 billion euros, financed by the EU and the IMF, however, is strictly conditional on the adoption of a new austerity plan in Greece. By putting the pressure on Athens, the euro area is playing with fire.Persistent fear of a shipwreck Greek also continued to weigh on European stock markets Monday and bank stocks. Here's what could happen in the coming days, ahead crucial for the events.

Greece rigor vote

The Greek Parliament has to decide June 28 on the 2012-2015 multi-year budget plan, which provides further savings measures, to 28.4 billion euros, and a wave of privatizations expected to report 50 billion. The announcement of the new austerity plan and the fear of selling off of many state enterprises have attracted strong popular protest, forcing the Prime Minister George Papandreou to reshuffle his team. The purse strings are now held by the man of experience and a politician Evangelos Venizelos. To lock his fragile majority, George Papandreou will first undergo Tuesday in a vote of confidence from Parliament.Despite some defections within his party, Pasok, he should win both races – the socialist majority in effect holds 155 seats out of 300. Athens also expressed "confidence" in the adoption of the austerity plan in Parliament.

Thus, nothing precludes the payment of EUR 12 billion as expected by Greece to meet its repayment schedule in the short term. In the longer term however, the situation in Greece remains a concern. The country's debt amounted to 340 billion euros, more than 150% of GDP. Despite a reduction of six points of its deficit in 2010, Athens has not regained the confidence of the markets which require it of interest rates long-term record of nearly 17%. This is why the euro area has decided to grant an extension of a hundred billion euros to cover the needs of the country by 2014.The outline of this new financial assistance plan should be finalized at the next meeting of the Eurogroup, on 3 July.

Finally, if European leaders manage to agree on the terms of the loan. Berlin in fact requires banks and other private creditors involved in this new aid. Which may be likened to a default or event of credit rating agencies and thus panic in financial markets. The solution seems to be emerging now is that of a "roll-over" of the Greek debt. In financial jargon, this means that creditors when loans mature, replace them "voluntarily" by others of the same amount. But whatever the solution, the question of the ability of Greece to repay its debt remains. The crisis is far from over.But this is not the austerity measures that will boost domestic demand. On the contrary …

Greece refuses rigor

Even if the government succeeds in passing Papandreou's new austerity plan in Parliament, it is not certain that the population accepts it. The announcement of the budget plan has already led hundreds of thousands of Greeks on the streets for two weeks. And mobilization is unwavering. Thousands of "outraged" have yet shown Sunday on Syntagma Square in Athens. Nearly half of the Greeks want the release of the new Parliament austerity plan developed by the government for a new international aid and avoid a collapse of public accounts, according to a poll published in the Sunday edition of To Vima. For political analyst George Sefertzis Greek, the street will not drop weapons as the government will not be dropped.The country plunged into political chaos serious right-wing opposition with no more favor in the eyes of the Greeks that the socialist majority in power.

In such a scenario, the EU and the IMF have said they therefore would not pay the 12 billion planned, and Athens could not repay 2.4 billion euros owed to its creditors on July 15 this year. This means that Greece will default on its debt. A paradox because the loan refusal would trigger what the Europeans fear most. This raises the question of the reality of the threat. The Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, in fact, compares the failure of Greece to that of Lehman Brothers. "If Greece was the first to default, then the looks would turn to other countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium can be but also France," says it in an interview with La Tribune on Monday.

According to the specialist markets Georges Ugeux, a default of Greece would extend to all private and public debt of the country, far in excess of one trillion euros. This would cause the immediate collapse of Greek banks, so depositors and businesses. What would happen then to Greece? An output of the euro area would be inevitable in order to enable the country to devalue its currency and to win quickly in price competitiveness. Except that again, it would not be without consequences for the euro area. AAA-rated countries such as Germany and France, the ECB should recapitalize to the tune of at least 190 billion, injecting massive amounts into money markets and save the German and French banks. But beyond the cost of the event, the very survival of the euro area would be threatened.

Eurazeo its successful takeover of OFI Private Equity

Auto Date Saturday, June 18th, 2011

Eurazeo said Friday its successful bid for OFI Private Equity Capital, an investment fund specialized in French SMEs previously controlled by the mutual insurer Macif.

Macif and other principal shareholders of OFI Private Equity Capital have brought all their holdings, or 75% stocks and 79% of the share warrants (BSA) in exchange for new shares representing 3.7 Eurazeo % of its capital, said the investment company in a statement.

Eurazeo announced this transaction in late April of 132 million euros.The company had indicated the end of March target two billion euro of value creation by 2014 after having returned to profitability in 2010.

She will file today a proposed exchange offer simplified shares and warrants of OFI Private Equity Capital it does not already own.

The offer, which lasts two weeks, will be on the same exchange ratio, followed by a squeeze in the event of crossing the threshold of 95% of share capital and voting rights of OFI Private Equity Capital.

Silvio Berlusconi News Bini Smaghi resign from the ECB

Auto Date Thursday, June 16th, 2011

The Italian government has asked Lorenzo Bini Smaghi to resign from the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, as part of a tacit agreement reached between Paris and Rome wants to ensure the accession of Mario Draghi as the monetary institution.

Former Governor of the Bank of Italy, is the only candidate to replace Jean-Claude Trichet, whose term ends in late October, but his ambition could face a refusal by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi to resign.

"There is a formal request from the government to resign Bini Smaghi," he said Thursday at the Press Council President Silvio Berlusconi.

MEPs endorsed Wednesday the appointment of Mario Draghi as President of the ECB, and the Heads of State and Government of the EU must validate definitively at a summit in Brussels on 23 and 24 June

Although there are no rules governing the nationality of the Executive Board of the ECB, several countries in the euro area have indicated they would not accept the presence of two Italian members within the monetary institution.

"To get the consent of France to Mario Draghi, our candidate for the ECB, there must be a French seat on the Executive Board of the ECB, this should happen through the resignation of Bini Smaghi," said the head of Italian government.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who sits on the Executive Board since 2005 and whose term expires in 2013, declined to comment on the announcement.

"No comment, I do not answer," he told reporters.

In a speech earlier in the day, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi criticized the attempts of political interference in the functioning of the ECB, insisting on the independence of its members.

Last week, the vice-president of the ECB's Vitor Constancio has also considered that there should be no political pressure for the resignation of board members.

Moody's notes could degrade SocGen, BNP and CASA

Auto Date Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

Moody's said Tuesday it had placed under surveillance the French bank Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas for a possible deterioration in their notes because of their exposure to the Greek crisis.

In a statement issued in Madrid, the rating agency said that the review will include the long-term debt and deposits.

"The main objective of these three reviews focus on the exposures of these banks to sovereign debt Greek, the Greek private sector and the potential inconsistency between the impact of a possible defect or a possible reorganization and their Greek current rating levels, "said Moody's.

For Credit Agricole SA, the main risk identified by the rating agency has on its Greek subsidiary Emporiki.The analysis is similar in terms of Societe Generale, which has a majority share capital of the Greek bank Geniki.

BNP Paribas has no subsidiary in Greece and its exposure, says Moody's, is "more modest". But it holds a mass "substantial" claims on Greece's debt.