The recovery should continue at low speed in France by the end of the year, with a growth rebound in the second quarter but remain moderate then provides INSEE.
In his memo on the economy released Wednesday, the Statistical Institute expects a 0.5% of GDP in the second quarter and growing 0.4% in the next two quarters.
For the full year, growth would be 1.4%, in line with the government's forecast and just enough to stabilize unemployment.
The acquired at year end would be +0.6% and should in this case a 0.8% growth in each quarter of 2011 for achieving the government target of 2.5% was calculated INSEE which the forecast is however limited to 2010.
After rising 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2009, GDP stagnated in the first three months of 2010 (+0.1%), fearing a relapse of the economy even if this figure is likely to be revised upwards on Friday when the national accounts are published in detail.
Entitled "In mid-stream, Note Insee business survey suggests a continuation of the recovery but at a moderate pace and with high uncertainty.
Turbulent waters
"An upturn in global activity was engaged for several quarters but there is still some way to go in this crisis and in waters which may be turbulent," said Sandrine DuchĂȘne, head of the Business cycle, at a press conference.
Two forces are at work in France as in other advanced economies, "she said.On the one hand, the global recovery, but more beneficial to the country heavily exposed to foreign trade such as Germany or Japan, the other the need for fiscal consolidation that has already resulted in the listing Plan rigor.
"The year 2010 is a transition year between recovery and fiscal consolidation," said Sandrine DuchĂȘne.
"In the very short term, the second quarter looks good but there is currently a cap on surveys which is expected a slowdown in activity by the end of the year."
According to INSEE, the attenuation of growth in the second half will not call into question both the positive contributions of the first quarter, namely the beginnings of a revival in business investment and re-creations of net jobs in the commercial sector.
"This trend will continue throughout the year but the pace of recovery will be slow and does not transmit only gradually income households," said Sandrine DuchĂȘne.
In this context and with unemployment still high but stable, Insee sees household consumption stagnated in the second quarter as the first, before rising moderately (0.3%) in the next two quarters.
Demand for business will be limited but the depreciation of the euro will bring them a breath of fresh air by making their exports more competitive.
POSITIVE EFFECT OF THE EURO
In total, according to projections by INSEE, the recent decline of the euro should have a positive impact of 1.6 points on exports this year and 0.5 percentage points on growth that otherwise would therefore was only 0.9%.
Business investment in turn will benefit from improved market opportunities but will remain constrained by production capacity remains under-used, with a rate currently of 76% – ten points below the long-term average.
After eight consecutive quarters of decline, Insee sees the investment by non-financial leave of 0.6% in the second quarter, but he would decline a further 2.0% in total over 2010, following a drop of 7.9% in 2009.
Regarding employment, creation of the 24,000 net new market sectors in the first quarter – after seven quarters of destruction – would be followed by 8,000 others in the second, 4,000 and 15,000 in the third to the fourth, a total gain of 51,000 jobs this year 337,000 after destruction in 2009.
After six quarters of strong growth, the unemployment rate would remain stable for its 9.5% in France (9.9% in the counties overseas), to its highest level since late 1999.
Insee said its forecasts are surrounded by uncertainties. A resurgence of financial stress and / or the impact of measures to reduce the deficit might weigh on growth, since, unlike the depreciation of the euro, if continued, would allow countries Eurozone to benefit more from the dynamism of world trade.